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After Coronavirus Measures, China’s Crude Oil Demand Plunges 20%:
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After Coronavirus Measures, China’s Crude Oil Demand Plunges 20%: Industry
Sources

by Wolf Richter • Feb 3, 2020 • [44]78 Comments

“Probably the largest demand shock the oil market has suffered since the
global financial crisis, and the most sudden since the Sept. 11 attacks.”

By [45]Wolf Richter for [46]WOLF STREET.

The measures imposed by Chinese authorities, by authorities in other
countries, and by businesses and consumers to counter the spread of the
coronavirus have slammed the demand for crude oil and petroleum
products. In parts of China that now span an area producing nearly 70%
of its GDP, many transportation systems have been shut down. Traffic
has radically fallen off as people stay at home. Countless flights in
China, and to and from China, have been cancelled. As I pointed out in
my [47]podcast on the economic effects of these measures, this comes at
the worst possible time for the already beaten up US shale oil
industry.

Now some numbers have emerged from “Chinese and Western oil executives,
speaking on condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to
discuss the matter publicly,” to what extent demand in China for crude
oil has collapsed. They told [48]Bloomberg that oil demand, as measured
against normal levels in China for this time of the year, has currently
dropped by 3 million barrels per day, or by 20% of total consumption.

“The drop is probably the largest demand shock the oil market has
suffered since the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009, and the
most sudden since the Sept. 11 attacks,” Bloomberg reported.

The sudden drop in demand in China – the world’s largest oil importer –
wiped out hopes that growing global demand for crude oil in combination
with production cuts by OPEC could overcome surging US production in
2020.
[INS: :INS]

In reaction, crude oil prices dropped across the board, starting in
early January. Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell another 3.5%
and is currently trading at $49.80, down 21% from January 6 and at the
lowest since January last year:

The plunge in Chinese demand has already rippled across suppliers.
[49]Bloomberg, citing industry sources, reported last week that sales
from Latin America to China have ground to a halt:

Zero sales have been reported since last week for March-loading
cargoes from Brazil and Colombia and unsold cargoes are piling up,
according to people familiar with the matter. Interest from buyers
has been sluggish. China hasn’t so far canceled or postponed any
cargoes set to load in February, the people said.

And it added:

Brazil has become the main Latin American oil supplier to China,
surpassing Venezuela, which is plagued by sanctions and an economic
and humanitarian crisis. Brazilian oil Lula is, after Russian ESPO,
the most sought-after grade by China’s independent refineries, known
as teapots. The teapots are the most exposed to a drop in domestic
consumption and are likely to be hit the hardest by the impact of
the coronavirus, according to oil traders in Asia.

Today, citing industry executives, Bloomberg reported that China’s
refineries were storing unsold gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum
products that they had already refined but couldn’t sell:

But stockpiles are growing every day, and some refineries may soon
reach their storage limits. If that were to happen, they would have
to cut the amount of crude they process. One executive said that
refinery runs were likely to be cut soon by 15-20%.

There are signs that’s already happening. Sinopec Group, the
nation’s biggest refiner, is in the process of reducing runs at its
plants by an average of about 13-15% and will review whether further
cuts are needed Feb. 9, according to one of the people.

[INS: :INS]

China has about 40 teapots, accounting for about a quarter of China’s
refining capacity. Of them, about 18 are facing storage capacity that
is filling up or has already filled up, and they may cut the rate at
which they process crude oil or may shut down processing completely,
traders familiar with operations at the plants told Bloomberg.

In the US shale oil industry, all hopes are now ironically on OPEC and
Russia to cut production further, after the production cuts late last
year that had come before the demand swoon in China.

There are now efforts underway to move the March 5-6 OPEC meeting
forward to February 14-15. Under consideration are two options,
according to the [50]Wall Street Journal: additional cuts of 500,000
barrels a day, or a temporary cut by Saudi Arabia of 1 million barrels
a day, which, according to officials, would be “aimed at creating a
shock in oil markets.”

But the problem is that in China demand at the moment has dropped by 3
million barrels a day, while US production is still growing. And any
OPEC cuts are just window dressing until Chinese demand resumes at a
somewhat normal pace – and that is not yet on the horizon.

In the US shale oil patch, Texas is at the epicenter not only of oil
production but of the destruction of money that loosey-goosey monetary
policies encouraged. Read… [51]The Great American Shale Oil & Gas Bust:
Fracking Gushes Bankruptcies, Defaulted Debt, and Worthless Shares

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I
totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I
appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out
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Tags:[53]coronavirus [54]Fracking

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78 comments for “After Coronavirus Measures, China’s Crude Oil Demand
Plunges 20%: Industry Sources”

1. Baker
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:18 pm
“The drop is probably the largest demand shock the oil market has
suffered since the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009, and the
most sudden since the Sept. 11 attacks,” Bloomberg reported.
When I see the price of gas back to far below $2.0 a gallon then
we’ll be back to 2008 levels. Until then this supposed oil drop is
a calculated scam to get people to short oil.
In a few days Trump will come out and make a few anti-Iranian
grunts and Oil will be back to $60 in a snap.
Nothing in the markets is real anymore. Supply and demand does not
matter. I’m convinced those numbers I see on the screens no longer
have any correlation to reality.
[58]Reply
+ Rich
Feb 3, 2020 at 9:26 pm
I agree with you regarding “Nothing in the markets is real
anymore. Supply and demand does not matter. I’m convinced
those numbers I see on the screens no longer have any
correlation to reality.”
Fake news, fake markets, fake meat, and fake boobs!
[59]Reply
o Iamafan
Feb 4, 2020 at 8:48 am
It is real, alright. The rich is getting richer and the
wealth divide is getting worse. The rich own the stocks
and the poor don’t. Central banks policies are not
working. Other than that, I’m not making a moral
judgement, but the facts are glaring.
If you want more proof of incompetence look at the Iowa
caucus. We don’t know who won because they won’t tell us.
That’s worse than what China is telling us about the
virus.
[60]Reply
+ 2banana
Feb 3, 2020 at 9:42 pm
The Iranian economy is going to get even more crushed than it
already is.
Low oil prices are like sanctions on steroids to Iran.
You know what Iran’s second biggest export is (besides
terror)?
Pistachios.
[61]Reply
o normansdog
Feb 4, 2020 at 2:22 am
hmmm, I think that if yu are looking for the world’s main
terror exporter you probably need to look closer to home.
Iran is in comparison a minor league player.
[62]Reply
# timbers
Feb 4, 2020 at 6:09 am
This is correct.
Also, any such actions one might attribute to Iran
take might likely fall into a legally justifiable
self defense, because according to international
law, because under international law America is the
clear aggressor because it’s economic sanctions are,
according to international law, constitute an
illegal Declaration of War against Iran
# Harvey Mushman
Feb 4, 2020 at 12:03 pm
Agreed… reluctantly.
+ timbers
Feb 3, 2020 at 10:04 pm
“Nothing in the markets is real anymore. Supply and demand
does not matter.” I tend to agree with you. After all, the
stock “markets” surged on news China fired up it’s printing
presses but apparently couldn’t care less abt the reported 20%
decline – an actual economic related figure.
[63]Reply
+ Weary Patience
Feb 3, 2020 at 10:46 pm
I just filled up yesterday for 1.959/gal
It’s looking like it could go something like this: demand
shock, price dip, more bankruptcy and shying away from lending
to the shale patch due to losses, more opec cuts, recovery in
demand leading to price spike due to less shale production and
too much concerted/overzealous cutting from opec, leading to
financial strain on bottom percents of population, leading to?
Resurgence in shale “investment” or recession.
Probably take a year or three to work through the motions
though?
[64]Reply
2. Javert Chip
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:25 pm
Coronavirus isn’t China’s only problem.
Controlling (killing) the pork virus has consumed 50% of the herd,
China’s most preferred meat.
Soybean fields all over China are being attacked by an insect
critter that devastates the crop.
The NYT has recently reported that N5N1 (or is it H1N5?) bird flu
is on the rampage; 12,000+ infected & 250+ dead.
This is a lot of disruption to pump thru any national economic
system, especially a primitive and not very truthful communist one.
[65]Reply
+ Unamused
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:49 pm
This is a lot of disruption to pump thru any national economic
system, especially a primitive and not very truthful communist
one.
Primitive? By several measures they have the US beat cold, and
it’s the US that’s busily turning into a third world banana
republic.
Communist? Actually they’re capitalists now, sort of, and
they’ve been eating your lunch for years.
Not very truthful? With this potus? You’re kidding, right?
As for the demand shock, it’s unlikely to affect US financial
markets very much unless it’s prolonged, like, several months.
US equity markets certainly seem unconcerned, but you know how
they are.
[66]Reply
o Cas127
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:55 pm
Maybe the first and last time I agree with Una – the US
is living in a glass house with more than a few panes
broken – for decades.
If the arrogance continues, the US will continue to get
its ass handed to it economically – a very high pct of
our current recovery is a ZIRP induced illusion.
[67]Reply
o Zantetsu
Feb 3, 2020 at 11:43 pm
There is some truth to what you say but you are vastly
overstating your case.
[68]Reply
+ Old Engineer
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:51 pm
And I read they are killing chickens to try to curb an H5N1
bird flu resurgence.
They have their hands full.
[69]Reply
+ Cas127
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:51 pm
“especially a primitive and not very truthful communist one.”
And, yet, they have been handing DC/US our ass for the last 20
years.
Look, China has its problems – but utterly unfounded American
arrogance about a lot of things has led the US into a lot of
decline over the last 20 years.
More of the same is going to yield more of the same.
[70]Reply
+ BobT
Feb 3, 2020 at 8:51 pm
Yes, with 4 major virus problems it is just like they were
under attack. Not that could possibly be the case. Sarc.
[71]Reply
3. Anthony Aluknavich
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:42 pm
Paid $1.93 per gallon yesterday at Walmart. Maybe I should have
waited a couple more days!
OIl is in the tank anyway. Natural gas is even worse, price wise.
Sit tight and buy XOM in the $40’s soon.
[72]Reply
4. nick kelly
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:48 pm
‘Brace For Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In’
This is the title of a piece by serious, non-alarmist blogger
Charles Hugh Smith on Zero Hedge ( Feb 3)
He outlines the case that it is too late to prevent a pandemic.
Probably his key point: many carriers are asymptomatic for up to
two weeks. Checking their temperature before letting them fly etc.
does not catch them.
Each carrier infects three to four others. Now they are carriers,
some with symptoms, some not. This is a geometric progression.
Second point: China has many millions of poor workers in the cities
who can’t live there if they can’t work. They have to migrate if
Wuhan bars, shops etc,. stay shut. Many already have.
Read it if you like, but if not familiar with ZH take a salt
shaker. There is good stuff there (WR stuff appears) but like the
gold shows tell us, you have to sluice a lot of dirt for every oz
of gold.
[73]Reply
+ Unamused
Feb 3, 2020 at 8:03 pm
you have to sluice a lot of dirt for every oz of gold.
ZH is too much work. It doesn’t repay the effort.
[74]Reply
o rhodium
Feb 3, 2020 at 8:37 pm
ZH has gotten dumber and dumber over the years. I’ll
admit I still visit for entertainment occasionally. Some
reposted articles are still good, but even though it’s
the best gossip on many of the latest conspiracy
theories, one should be highly skeptical of any of it.
They’re very quick to play up anything they were right
about years later while conventienly ignoring all the
other stupid horseshit and heavily embellished or
conveniently ignored facts that they peddled in the
meantime. Don’t get me started either on the mind-blowing
cognitive dissonance after 2016.
[75]Reply
o [76]ChangeMachine
Feb 4, 2020 at 1:30 am
And dear GOD don’t look at the comments! It’s like a
prison cell counseling session in there!
[77]Reply
# DebtWazoo
Feb 4, 2020 at 4:53 am
I tried to read the comments on ZH once.
I still have nightmares about that.
# Paulo
Feb 4, 2020 at 8:26 am
To me the ZH comments are a good window into the
last election (2016), and the growing divide. The
racism and hate towards Israel as the puppeteer of
all things is quite frightening, though.
I was doing some research into some ham radio topic
a few months ago and stumbled across a Ham blog site
seemingly located in northern California. It was all
about conspiracies; how Gubmint was asking a
repeater site to move in order to control free
speech and society. Them. Us. They’re all out to
take away our rights and guns.
The ZHedgers talk about how backwards the Chinese
are, because they eat different foods, mostly. In my
mind I compare the I5 in northern WA (State) to
their new freeways, or the lumbering Amtrak to
Vancouver BC vrs high speed rail in China; 35,000km
of line with a new maglev able to run at 600km/hr.
As to this article, I read it keenly because my son
works in the oil patch in Alberta. The Oil Sands
projects are so long term and it is relatively easy
to control production. No market? Don’t step up
processing and leave the sand in the ground. Shale,
on the other hand, is effed. Drilled wells have to
produce immediately for cash flow. If they don’t
complete the wells, (DUCS), the drilling costs still
have to paid off and there are no cash reserves to
rely on. Plus, borrowing more funds is likely off
the table, completely.
Someone mentioned this will hurt Iran and cause them
to knuckle under. I agree, it will hurt Iran, but
likely just ramp up the drumbeats for war…by both
sides. Did Russia roll over in WW2? Did Korea? The
VC? Afghanistan? No, people and countries will fight
to the bitter end, until they are overwhelmed by
marching armies, and even that might be only
temporary? Look for more terrorism, by both sides,
regardless of The Virus.
All I know the airlines have quit flying to China
and those empty streets are very very frightening.
Pre-market trading this morning at 390 pts and Tesla
just rose again. Is it 1929, or just insanity?
# [78]Ambrose Bierce
Feb 4, 2020 at 10:16 am
This is one of the first websites to rate other
websites for troll activity.
Trolls can take over any website, even this one. If
Wolf gets tired of working for beer.
[79]http://www.propornot.com/p/home.html
# Frasersgrove
Feb 4, 2020 at 10:19 am
Every time you go into the comments on ZH, you lose
brain cells…
+ Nat
Feb 3, 2020 at 8:15 pm
For added “fun” apparently the viruses bonding motief to the
human antigen it uses is one point mutation away from being
much stronger (based on prior viruses that had the alternate
motief). This means this virus is a single pint mutation away
from potentially becoming much more lethal.
[80]Reply
+ c1ue
Feb 3, 2020 at 9:51 pm
I kept looking for the /sarc tag, but apparently you are
serious: that CHS is not an alarmist
[81]Reply
o David S.
Feb 4, 2020 at 2:15 pm
I used to enjoy and get quite a bit from his articles but
the last few years it’s just the same recycled stuff.
Mostly now just blah-blah-blah … buy my stuff.
Seems like a nice enough guy, though.
[82]Reply
o nick kelly
Feb 4, 2020 at 5:28 pm
Check CNN today: ‘Doctor who tried to save lives now has
N virus’
Doctor Li became worried when several workers from the
same market became very ill. He posted on- line and then
saw his message blurred out.
Soon he was detained by police and severely reprimanded
for disturbing social order.
Now after treating a patient he has the virus and is on
oxygen. (For the buddies who think this mainly affects
the old: he’s 34.)
It would be another 10 + days after Li’s warning before
Wuhan lock down, but by that time 5 million had left the
city for the holiday.
All in all a considerably more alarming story than
Smith’s.
BTW: no one can survive in the media by down playing
stuff. WR is often accused of being alarmist along with
super-bear David Stockman.
In the case of this virus, so far fact is running ahead
of most speculation.
[83]Reply
+ nick kelly
Feb 4, 2020 at 7:43 pm
Just in on CNN: Princess Cruise ship with 3700 aboard will be
quarantined at Yokohama for two weeks.
How’s that for a holiday? Passengers will be fed but will
there be an open bar?
And here is the bad news: the apparent carrier had no symptoms
when he was aboard. They backtracked when he finally tested
positive and then found 40 testing positive on board.
Recall that according to CNN, not abnormally alarmist, 5
million left Wuhan before the lock down, dispersing all over
China.
Prediction: over the next few days there will be a distinct
reduction in comparisons to the hazards of seasonal flu,
traffic accidents, opium etc.
I’m Canadian and right now our media is basking in the praise
from China for being one of the few countries not banning
arrivals from China.
We’ll see how long that lasts.
[84]Reply
5. Andre the New Giant
Feb 3, 2020 at 7:54 pm
[85]https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/by-year/?area=CN&ref_=bo_
in_table_65
Movie tickets sales in China last weekend fell by over 99% compared
to the previous weekend.
[86]Reply
+ Mike G
Feb 4, 2020 at 3:34 pm
Now THAT’S a bear market.
[87]Reply
6. Keepcalmeverythingisfine
Feb 3, 2020 at 8:51 pm
Per Wiki: A pandemic is an epidemic of disease that has spread
across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or even
worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of
how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic.
Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of seasonal
flu.
We can watch China and the economic impact and extrapolate that to
other heavily populated countries and cities. Or, have faith our
leaders will contain it, and that they care. Hmmmm.
[88]Reply
+ nick kelly
Feb 4, 2020 at 10:50 am
‘A pandemic is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a
large region; for instance multiple continents, or even
worldwide’
Yes. Right or wrong that is what he is postulating. He says
that since tens of thousands of asymptomatic carriers left
China and each will infect others who will infect others….
He is hopefully wrong about his prediction but he knows the
definition.
[89]Reply
7. David Hall
Feb 3, 2020 at 9:00 pm
After being scolded for cash burning, Tesla is celebrating. People
may not need gasoline if they buy EV autonomous. Less air pollution
in the big city. The short sellers stampeded to cover as Tesla
stock rose 19% in a day.
Some E&P companies have contracts to pay pipeline company transport
fees, even if they do not ship any oil. They will ship oil as long
as the economics allow. If they miscalculated, their assets might
be sold at bankruptcy auction. Oil shortages did more damage to
commuters than oil gluts.
[90]Reply
+ 2banana
Feb 3, 2020 at 11:11 pm
Just where do you think the electricity to run a Tesla exactly
comes from? Especially in China?
Hint. Four letter word. Starts with a “C” and ends with
virtual signaling of the rich and uber rich using government
credits and tax subsidies to buy a toy…
[91]Reply
o Raymond Rogers
Feb 4, 2020 at 12:59 am
Rainbows and unicorns. That is where it all comes from.
Ir maybe it’s from that magical box where all the “free”
stuff comes from.
[92]Reply
8. Willy Winky
Feb 3, 2020 at 9:20 pm
Wolf – is it ok if I post this? People can work out the
implications for themselves.
[93]Reply
+ [94]Wolf Richter
Feb 4, 2020 at 12:30 am
You already posted the same link yesterday. Once is enough.
[95]Reply
o Raymond Rogers
Feb 4, 2020 at 12:59 am
Can I have some more, sir.
[96]Reply
9. Makruger
Feb 3, 2020 at 9:27 pm
Hmm…maybe the U.S. and Canadian oil producers should cut back
production as OPEC and Russia have done and may need to do again.
If pumping more oil is only resulting in less profit and even
causing bankruptcy, perhaps pumping less will reverse the trend.
Makes sense to me at least.
[97]Reply
+ [98]Wolf Richter
Feb 4, 2020 at 12:35 am
The only way US producers are seriously cutting production is
if they run out of money and are pushed into bankruptcy. The
incentives are all wrong. Executives are rewarded for
production, not cash flow or profits.
[99]Reply
o [100]Ambrose Bierce
Feb 4, 2020 at 10:49 am
Today Fed put 100B, 120B offered in the markets. Rates
fall, and boosts corporate HY which is the funding source
for E&P, shale oil and fracking; company profits made off
cheap credit. They continue to increase supply.
Coronavirus is an exogenous tamp down on demand. The only
thing that will slow production at this point is a
tightening of liquidity and FED is going the opposite
direction, to save the markets. We passed irrational on
the way to insane.
[101]Reply
# [102]Wolf Richter
Feb 4, 2020 at 12:19 pm
Ambrose Bierce,
“Today Fed put 100B, 120B offered in the markets.”
No! This is what happened today, and it amounted on
net to $2.5 billion:
— 14-day repo fr Jan 21 unwound today: -$32.1
billion
— Overnight repo unwound today: -$59.8 billion
— New 14-day repo today: +$30 billion
— New overnight repo: + $64.4 billion
Net: +2.5 billion
And rates offered did not fall. They’re up from last
year through January 28. Today at 1.60% for
overnight and 1.61% for 14-day repos, up from 1.55%
and 1.58 through Jan 28.
# Anmol
Feb 4, 2020 at 1:32 pm
Thanks for posting the repo details constantly. I
get my !Ind blown with the doom porn at zh then go
through your comments for a dose of reality.
+ Brant Lee
Feb 4, 2020 at 9:04 am
Russia and our “Friends” OPEC may look at this situation as an
opportunity to knock out the competition from U.S. fracking by
letting prices plummet quickly. D.C. will have to step in to
give a more direct subsidization to the failing industry if
prices keep falling.
[103]Reply
10. John
Feb 3, 2020 at 9:30 pm
WTF! Thanks Wolf.
[104]Reply
11. Dave
Feb 3, 2020 at 9:32 pm
Has anyone asked Alexa what to do about containing the virus? I bet
you she knows.
[105]Reply
+ sierra7
Feb 4, 2020 at 1:18 pm
Dave:
Asking Alexis if she knows what to do….
Reply:
“How do I know; I’m too busy spreading my own!”
[106]Reply
12. raxadian
Feb 3, 2020 at 10:21 pm
Can you say “There is no business like fracking business?”
[107]Reply
+ WT Frogg
Feb 4, 2020 at 10:54 am
Raxadian: I can say it but only while clicking my ruby work
boots together
with my eyes closed. LOL. ;)
[108]Reply
13. WES
Feb 4, 2020 at 1:00 am
Arctic:. One thing nobody seems to be talking about is that
somewhere between 20% to 25% of coronavirus patients required
serious medical treatment to survive.
That likely means many especially in China most sick people are
simply being left to die at home. They are not being counted
because there are not enough test kits so they are being cremated
no questions asked!
In addition to people to people transmission, it is now coming out
that the virus can be spread via door knobs, keyboards, fausets,
etc. Let that fact sink in!
The more we learn about this virus the worst it is.
Checking/screening people for temperatures is pretty well useless
because most carriers show no signs until it is way too late!
Look at how one Chinese lady infected so many of her co-workers in
Germany! Over 10!
If you think we in the west could do better, I think you are very
wrong!
We in the west don’t have enough beds nor enough test kits either!
I wonder why western governments are now quarantining everyone?
[109]Reply
+ Forest Gump
Feb 4, 2020 at 2:08 am
More alarm, in SE asia there has been one death in the
Philipines, this is of the 100’s of positive tests. Everybody
with a fever, runny nose, or cough south of China is going to
the doc. Nobody is dying at home.
That means that outside and near China, the rate of death is
less than 1%, let that sink in, and extrapolate that back to
China….
In China proper its another problem.
In China, the problem is “People” think 1,000X or 100X of any
time you have been to Disneyland. It’s always that way in
China. You have to fight to get on a bus, you have to fight
for your reserved seat.
So the same now, everybody in China that feels ill wants to go
the doctor, but the hospitals are 100X over-capacity. The only
people dying are old people who are dying of pneumonia, but
the problem is the over-taxed system, not so much the virus.
Another thing, what is this about “Dying at home” in the USA
when I was a kid, my family was proud of dying at home, nobody
sent granny to die in the hospital. In all of Asia, in general
people die at home, the death is certified, there is a 3 day
memorial, then burial/cremation. There is absolutely nothing
that can be done when the hospitals are packed to the ceiling.
They could have a ‘lottery’ but people would still be ‘dying
at home’, well they would be sick at home. 99% of the time
when you have pneumonia, you just stay in bed and shake it off
if your strong, you don’t get cold to begin with, and you
don’t breath cold air, which usually starts the process.
The problem unique to China is its winter, and they don’t have
‘central heat’, so going to the hospital means laying on a
cold floor, which if your already sick, now you get pneumonia.
If all the places outside of China are running less than 1%
mortality, then you can assume its the safe in China.
Nobody talks, because if you call the ‘gov’ then they
quarantine your home, which means your house becomes a prison.
In general just like modern USA, in ASIA nobody call’s the
police into their home.
[110]Reply
o david sharma
Feb 4, 2020 at 2:22 pm
“The problem unique to China is its winter, and they
don’t have ‘central heat’, so going to the hospital means
laying on a cold floor, which if your already sick, now
you get pneumonia.”
That explains why every picture and video of people in
the hospitals in China show them wearing heavy winter
coats. Even the people just sitting waiting.
[111]Reply
+ TonTon
Feb 4, 2020 at 3:53 am
This is not the case. We are only seeing the numbers from the
most vulnerable in Hubei. By the time they started confirming
the cases and publishing the numbers there were most likely
tens of thousands of cases (Lancet article estimated 75,000 in
Hubei alone by Jan 23 I think it was. Might have been Jan 25).
As far as I remember a Business Insider article from Jan 23
said that China only had the capacity to test 2000 cases per
day. Compare this to USA, the top healthcare system in the
world, whereby it’s taking a week to test the 30
schoolchildren from Florida. It’s difficult to test people.. I
have also read that the USA only has 100,000 ICU beds
(ominous) although I could have misheard this.
A better example of the true numbers is a region where the
medical facilities were not yet overwhelmed. Zhejiang has
slowly creeped up to 829 cases. 0 Deaths. 49 recoveries.
Given that people are wary of the Chinese numbers we can also
look to cases outside mainland China. All the German cases are
doing well with the first person infected just taking 2 days
off work and having felt only mild symptoms. The numbers
outside of China will give a much better indication of the
death rate and the critical rate. It will be far below the
percentages we are currently seeing. However, this virus does
seem incredibly infectious so it might affect an incredibly
high percentage of the world’s population.
All the early deaths, seem to be of the elderly or people with
a secondary illness. There are a couple of cases of younger
people dying (those under 40), but those individuals may have
a genetic predisposition to being more vulnerable to this
particular virus.
[112]Reply
o Cas127
Feb 4, 2020 at 11:16 am
“Compare this to USA, the top healthcare system in the
world, ”
Cough, cough.
Literally – cough, cough.
The only people who still believe in the wonderfulness of
the US healthcare system…are those who have had very,
very little contact with it.
As with most of America’s rotting institutions, the HC
system performs worse and worse while consuming more and
more resources.
[113]Reply
o Wisdom Seeker
Feb 4, 2020 at 6:07 pm
If you take China-outside-of-Hubei the data show a
mortality rate among confirmed cases (deaths / recovered)
of 4%. Recoveries take longer than deaths, so the
recovery number might be low. Non-confirmed cases may be
much larger and have a lower or higher mortality rate,
depending. Could be lower if people who get only mildly
ill don’t bother getting tested and “confirmed”. Could be
higher if people are dying at home without care.
Also lost in all of this is that with the hospitals
overwhelmed, mortality rates for Every Other Illness will
also be higher. Even seasonal flu becomes more fatal than
the usual 0.1% when treatment isn’t available. Those
deaths could be attributed to the coronavirus
second-hand.
[114]Reply
+ SwissBrit
Feb 4, 2020 at 5:51 am
“In addition to people to people transmission, it is now
coming out that the virus can be spread via door knobs,
keyboards, fausets, etc. Let that fact sink in! ”
Most if not all viruses can spread in this manner; the flu
virus can live 24 hours or longer on plastic and metal
surfaces like cafeteria tables, doorknobs, and cups.
[115]Reply
14. KGC
Feb 4, 2020 at 1:29 am
If the price of crude drops below 50 and stays there for any
significant amount of time it’s going to have social impact in a
number of countries. Iran and Russia cannot sustain their economies
at those prices, and even the Saudi’s are going to be hit hard. But
places like Algeria (which is on the edge of a major revolution)
and Libya (currently torn by fighting funded on opposite sides by
Russia and Iran) are going to get bad.
Maybe not Venezuela bad, but worse than they are now. Those are
countries kept semi-stable by oil revenues.
Sub-Saharan Africa too is going to have problems with Nigeria
headed back to open warfare as oil theft keeps entire tribes from
starving. Six months of below $45/bbl crude could very well see
Russia leaving the Crimea, Iran changing from a religious
autocracy, and Turkey becoming the next Argentina.
And it’s really hard to justify EV’s when gas is cheap…
[116]Reply
15. ConfirmationBias
Feb 4, 2020 at 1:40 am
Here’s a boost to useless consumption of energy.
China has just 100% banned ‘home food delivery’ for the entire
country. Nobody wants a virus delivered to their home. U got to
wonder when this stuff coming to USSA???
[117]Reply
16. Willy Winky
Feb 4, 2020 at 4:19 am
BOOM!
Cathay Pacific plans deep flight cuts worldwide amid coronavirus
woes
Sources say passenger numbers have collapsed by 50 per cent in
recent days.
[118]https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3048918/
hong-kongs-cathay-pacific-airways-plans-deep-flight-cuts
And meanwhile the SCMP reported that the virus is mutating.
Mutating is a word that scares people. It panics them. They dont
buy fly or do much more than cower in fear.
This is just beginning.
It will not end well
[119]Reply
+ Mike G
Feb 4, 2020 at 3:40 pm
Cathay’s volume was already down like 40% from the months of
street protests and police violence in HK.
[120]Reply
17. unit472
Feb 4, 2020 at 6:40 am
Right now the price of oil is the least of our problems. I’m
worried about a collapse of China’s healthcare system. Those
Chinese nurses are being worked to death ( perhaps literally).
Taking throat swabs to determine nCoV status is dangerous work and
doing it in full body protective suits adds to the problem. They
breathe thru a double layer of N95 masks and can only wear the gear
for an hour at a time before they have to stop to rest. They also
have to turn and clean up after those too weak to do it themselves.
Not much information on how many healthcare workers are themselves
becoming victims.
Another worrying data point. The number of ‘recovered patients’. It
is is about 50% more than the official tally of the dead. Three
weeks into this drama that, to this layman, seems low. Most people
get over ‘the flu’ in just a few days. Why are so many nCoV
patients still in hospital?
[121]Reply
+ Xabier
Feb 4, 2020 at 8:30 am
That’s why there is a lock-down of the worst-affected areas:
it manages the pressure on the hospitals, supplies and staff.
Also, I suspect, to avert any upsurge in looting of empty
properties, which has always accompanied plagues since time
began.
At the moment, I think it is fair to say that we have no
trustworthy figures of any kind on this outbreak, except
-maybe – in the West/Japan.
On the positive side, we have a huge and very mobile Chinese
community -mostly students – here (Cambridge, UK) and not one
reported case so far.
[122]Reply
18. Paulo
Feb 4, 2020 at 8:38 am
Evacuated Canadians are being tested in Vancouver then flown to
Trenton ON military base for a 2 week quarantine. This is a pretty
big deal for Canada, actually. While our Country is huge and
sparsely settled, it is very urban with over 80% living in cities
within 100 miles of the US border.
Overreaction? Time will tell.
[123]Reply
19. Michael Engel
Feb 4, 2020 at 9:58 am
1) Somebody told the market that Chines oil consumption
is down 20%, sending CL (future market) down.
2 Yesterday at 6PM at nadir, whenCL hit 49.66 he clicked in Chicago
tons of contracts. Volume was unusually high, when Putin talked
to the prince on the phone, in preparation to OPEC meeting today.
3) Dr Copper HG (future market) in a trading range since Nov 2016,
perhaps in accumulation.
4) RE all over the world was hit by the coronavirus : Chinese RE
workers, building highways, ports, hospitals, apartment buildings,
were blocked from coming back and developers scramble to fill the
gap, paying higher wages, whatever it take.
5) On March, every type of flue outbreak fade and expire.
6) Premier Xi showed the world how powerful he is. China locked up
100M, when he gave the order, while US cannot lockup even one
criminal,
or traitor.
[124]Reply
20. Michael Engel
Feb 4, 2020 at 10:29 am
1) Dia 15 min, the DOW ETF is happy. It popped up to close Jan
30/31 open
gap above, while opening another huge gap below.
2) Jan 17 is peak.
3) DIA in a trading range, since Jan 27, at lower level, below the
peak.
4) Today DIA high is at about the same as Jan 2 high, for a count.
5) Today DIA is building cause #1.
6) Dia bounced on Ichimoku cloud on Jan 31, but next week will
breach the cloud on the way down.
[125]Reply
21. Mean Chicken
Feb 4, 2020 at 10:34 am
Drink plenty of fluids and avoid imbibing in your favorite drugs,
at least until you begin feeling better and maybe even till they’re
legalized.
I felt deathly ill for quite a while, experienced profuse sweating,
vomiting and violent convulsions for days on end. People around me
were beginning to ask questions.
Hope I never get the HIV flu again! ;(
[126]Reply
22. [127]Ambrose Bierce
Feb 4, 2020 at 11:05 am
China also has ways to outsource their manufacturing. If they can
build a hospital in 7 days why not an Iphone plant in Brazil? The
US seems to have all sorts of problems negotiating these myriads of
trade agreements, why not deal with one country directly and let
them subcontract? No hassles with supply lines, transportation, and
labor. This virus may turn out to be the catalyst for China’s next
big economic step forward. Such a move might help the climate
change problem, and give them carbon credits trading manufacturing
to nations with more renewables, and clean energy like hydro. Too
bad the US can’t figure this stuff out.
[128]Reply
+ nicko2
Feb 5, 2020 at 3:31 am
Uh…. China is way ahead of you there.
[129]Reply
23. Michael Engel
Feb 4, 2020 at 11:10 am
1) China is locked up by spaceship health care workers.
2) You cannot see them, talk to them, when they do their job.
3) US HAZARD teams training.
4) One day there was some kind of smell in the the street, in NYC.
5) HAZARD space ship team came out of their space ship trucks, and
ordered evacuation of every building, instance shutdown of street
level store, ==> out, out now, while they were doing their drill.
6) HAZARD supremacy
[130]Reply
24. akiddy111
Feb 4, 2020 at 11:33 am
I think that crude oil prices are crashing because hardly anybody
needs oil anymore. Similarly, no one needs U.K. manufactured
vehicles anymore either.
I saw that Tesla’s stock was up 20% earlier today for the umpteenth
time in the last several days. It’s revenue is expected to hit $30
billion this year up from $7 billion as recently as 2106.
Yahoo Finance forecasts 41% growth in revenue Y/Y for Tesla next
quarter. Elon Musk, eh. What a guy !
Parabolic growth for Tesla. Everyone sees it. Well…. almost
everyone. Blinkers and biases are very, very hard to remove. It’s
just the way it always is.
[131]Reply
+ [132]Wolf Richter
Feb 4, 2020 at 11:45 am
akiddy111,
Tesla’s revenue in 2019 edged up only 2% from 2018. Now the
Gigafactory in Shanghai is shut down. Model S and X sales are
collapsing, with sales shifting to the cheaper Model 3. But
for each Model S or X it doesn’t sell, it has to sell two or
three Model 3 just to stay even, dollar-wise. When the Model Y
comes out, it will cannibalize Model 3 sales, just like Model
3 sales killed Model S and X sales.
Hot off the press. Look at the other charts in it too:
[133]https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/04/im-in-awe-of-how-tesla-
is-now-a-supernatural-phenomenon/
[134]Reply
25. Macau
Feb 4, 2020 at 9:14 pm
Macau shutting downs Casinos
Now this is big, Macau is bigger than Vegas; Macau is the biggest
casino country on earth, and its 100% open to Chinese, well it was,
its also since 1997 run by China, former Portuguese colony.
HK is closed to Chinese, now effectively Macau will be closed, as
with no casinos, there will be no reason to go there.
Wow, think about this, much worse than HK, in terms of shutting a
place down, what will the people do who live there? Essentially it
just becomes another ‘quarantine center’, but they don’t even grow
their own food. So they’ll just be spending money, and not making
any money.
[135]Reply
+ nicko2
Feb 5, 2020 at 3:36 am
China is not revealing the full truth of the virus…. But the
big picture is starting to become clear. It’s bad.
[136]Reply
26. TonTon
Feb 5, 2020 at 3:40 am
I have been to Vegas a couple of times in January and the place was
filled with Chinese gamblers. I have not seen this talked about too
much anywhere. They would arrive long before the Chinese New Year
also, as everyone gets off at least a week or two beforehand. I’m
kind of amazed that there have been no cases of the virus in the
Vegas area. It’s quite cold there in January also so the virus
would not be killed off easily if it was on surfaces. The more days
that pass the more unusual it appears that this virus is not
spreading so much in the rest of the world. Even given the 2 week
incubation period. It has been a global health scare for at least 2
weeks now.
I might have been off on the US being the top Healthcare System
Cas127. I haven’t been to a medical facility within 4000 miles of
the US. I should have said ‘The top healthcare system in the world,
in the movies,’ or ‘the most expensive healthcare system in the
world’….
either way though, it’s a lot better than China. Many in the less
progressive areas of China don’t understand anything about
healthcare or western medicine and many don’t even believe in
germs. I know this firsthand from the children (It can still be a
small percentage and be many people in China).
[137]Reply

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