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An Ominous Prophecy Revisited [1]

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Date: 2025-05-29

Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire: The Arcadian or Pastoral State (1836)Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire: The Arcadian or Pastoral State (1836)Cole_Thomas_The_Course_of_Empire_The_Savage_State_1836I am not naturally given to pessimism. Like John Denver, sunshine makes me high, and when I’m skiing down a mountain at 30 mph, I am at one with the universe where all is untroubled and serene. But for the last several years, I have discerned a pensive sadness rising within my mind and spirit. Now my melancholy is morphing into wariness and disbelief, and hopelessness is giving way to fatalism. As I am now nearer to the end of my life than its beginning, I seem to experience some measure of dis-ease, a deprivation of the enchantment and contentment I envisioned for myself in my golden years.

Though I have been aware of this growing disquiet for some time, I have also been mindful that its origin is correlated neither with my advancing years nor a diminished level of interest in what has animated me through the course of my life. Rather, it is correlated with the toxicity of our politics, the co-optation and abuse of the Christian tradition by so-called Christian nationalists, and the rhetorical blather and destruction emanating from the new administration and its MAGA minions.

I admit that my discomfort and despair were elevated when I recently read Robert W. Merry’s 2013 essay titled “Spengler’s Ominous Prophecy” in The National Interest. Merry writes to remind us of the continuing relevance of the vision of history and its civilizations articulated more than a hundred years ago by the German natural scientist, historian, philosopher and mathematician, Oswald Spengler, in his two-volume magnum opus, The Decline of the West (1918, 1923). Merry’s essay moved me to pull Spengler’s volumes from my library shelf and re-read the sections I had previously highlighted (altogether it’s just under 1,000 pages!).

Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire: The Arcadian or Pastoral State (1836)

What I want to write about here are the reasons why I think Spengler’s analysis goes a long way toward aiding an understanding of both my current personal malaise and our current national circumstances. I have come to doubt that there is even a small likelihood of our nation emerging from this situation with anything that comes even close to making us stronger and greater, to say nothing of overcoming our divisions and realizing the promises of freedom and equality. The strategic policy ideas and programs currently on offer to Make America Great Again are patently absurd, and those who mouth this dictum are mere acolytes and sycophants—enablers—of a president whose ignorance is palpable and whose moral and intellectual acuity is superficial, somewhere between shallow and non-existent. So no, I don’t really expect our current political leadership to stem our national descent into stagnation, chaos, and demise.

Oswald Spengler’s The Decline of the West (1918–1922) presents an organic view of history in which civilizations, like living organisms, go through stages of birth, growth, peak, decline, and eventual collapse. He contends that every civilization follows a predictable trajectory, and once it reaches its peak, it enters a phase of decline characterized by cultural stagnation, political dysfunction, economic decay, and increasing authoritarianism. He argues that Western civilization—beginning with the Middle Ages and culminating in modernity—is now in its declining phase, marked by decadence, materialism, and the erosion of spiritual and cultural vitality.

Given the socio-political and cultural developments in the contemporary United States, Spengler’s theories appear particularly prescient. From political instability to cultural fragmentation and economic uncertainty, this nation now exhibits many of the symptoms that Spengler associated with a civilization in decline.

Spengler’s Theory of Civilization Cycles

Spengler contends that civilizations follow an organic process of growth and decline, largely passing from one stage he calls culture to a second stage he calls civilization. In the culture phase, a society is vital, creative, and spiritually rich, producing great works of art, philosophy, and religious thought; it is a period of vision, energy, enthusiasm, optimism, and accomplishment. However, when a society enters its civilization phase—settled, regularized, institutionalized—it becomes increasingly materialistic, rationalistic, and bureaucratic, leading to stagnation and eventual decline.

Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire: Consummation (1836)

Writing during the First World War and its aftermath, Spengler believed that Western civilization has entered the civilization stage, characterized by the dominance of technology, urbanization, and political cynicism. He believed that democracy would give way to authoritarian structures, and that a society focused on economic and scientific achievements would ultimately lose its cultural essence. His vision of decline suggests that while economic and technological advancements continue, the spiritual and cultural fabric of the society withers away.

The Political Decline of the United States

One of Spengler’s central claims is that late-stage civilizations experience a breakdown of political institutions and an erosion of effective governance. He argued that a key sign of civilizational decline is the replacement of visionary leadership with bureaucratic stagnation. In the contemporary U.S., this is evident in increasing political polarization, institutional dysfunction, and declining public trust in government. Political discourse has become more divisive, marked by ideological warfare rather than pragmatic governance. The growing inability of the government to address pressing issues such as economic inequality, healthcare, and infrastructure echoes Spengler’s notion of a civilization in decline.

Spengler also anticipated the decline of democracy and the rise of what he termed Caesarism—a stage where charismatic leaders seize power amid societal fragmentation. In the U.S., the rise of populist figures, the weakening of democratic norms, and the increasing reliance on executive authority seem to be congruent with Spengler’s prediction that democracy would ultimately collapse into autocracy as people seek strong leadership in times of crisis.

The Fragmentation of American Culture

In Spengler’s view, a culture in decline experiences a breakdown of shared values, leading to fragmentation and nihilism. In contemporary America, cultural fragmentation is evident in the erosion of a unifying national narrative; we lack consensus on who belongs in our story and what roles they have played. The rise of identity politics, social media-driven echo chambers, and the increasing alienation of individuals from traditional institutions all point to a fracturing of society.

Even in the early decades of the twentieth century, Spengler noted that civilizational decline is seen when cultural substance and depth give way to mass entertainment, consumerism, and the prioritization of economic utility. Today, a century later, American culture is dominated by transient social media trends, reality television, and corporate-driven entertainment that prioritizes spectacle over substance. What we have is highly commodified, mass-produced entertainment in which the recycling of past cultural expressions and the obsession with remakes and sequels in entertainment is a measure of our culture’s exhaustion.

Spengler also contends that in the civilization stage, intellectual discourse becomes sterile and unoriginal. In the U.S. at present, we are witnessing a decline in rigorous intellectual inquiry, with universities often prioritizing ideological conformity over genuine debate. The decline in the number and quality of educational institutions is astonishing.

Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire: Destruction (1836)

The Rise of Technocracy and Economic Determinism

Spengler argued that late civilizations become dominated by technology and economic concerns, with science replacing spiritual and philosophical thought as the dominant worldview. In the U.S., technological advancements have accelerated at an unprecedented rate, yet these innovations often serve corporate and economic interests rather than enriching cultural or philosophical life. The rise of artificial intelligence, automation, and digital surveillance has given corporations and governments unprecedented control over individuals, reinforcing Spengler’s concerns about a technocratic society.

Furthermore, the obsession with economic growth as the primary measure of national success reflects Spengler’s critique of civilizations in decline. He noted that declining civilizations move from a productive economy to a financialized one dominated by speculation rather than real industry. And yet, economic prosperity, while significant, has not alleviated widespread social dissatisfaction. Income inequality, job insecurity, and the decline of the middle class have created economic instability despite the U.S.’s material wealth. This aligns with Spengler’s view that in late-stage civilizations, wealth becomes concentrated in the hands of the few, while the majority experiences growing disillusionment and unrest.

The Erosion of National Identity and the Decline of the West

Spengler saw the decline of national identity as a key indicator of civilizational decay; he believed that civilizations decline when they lose their sense of historical purpose (Why are we here?). In the contemporary U.S., debates over national identity have intensified, with disagreements over immigration, historical narratives, and cultural values leading to increasing social tensions. The once-cohesive American identity, based on shared ideals of democracy and opportunity, has fractured into competing ideological camps, each with its own vision of the country’s future. Many Americans feel a lack of direction or unifying purpose beyond consumerism and economic survival, and our political and social divisions prevent the formation or renewal of a cohesive national identity. Once defined by its belief in “progress and innovation,” our country now faces uncertainty and a declining confidence in the American Dream. We are even uncertain what our role is or should be in an increasingly multipolar community of nations in which our once seemingly dominant place is challenged by other nations.

Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire: Desolation (1836)

What would it look like if we mapped Spengler’s cyclical-organic model of the stages of culture and civilization on U.S. history? What would birth, youth, growth, maturity, rigidity, decline, and death look like? I think such an exercise would reveal a trajectory that suggests we are indeed in the later phases of a national life span. My mapping of Spengler on the U.S. looks like this:

Birth and Cultural Awakening (1607–1776) – America’s Early Spring

This period aligns with Spengler’s culture phase; we are rowdy and rambunctious, young and full of energy, seeking to establish our foundational values with some degree of autonomy and distance. Beginning with Jamestown (1607) and Plymouth (1620), the early American colonies were driven by religious zeal, pioneering spirit, and a sense of destiny. The emergence of Puritan ethics, democratic self-governance, and the rugged individualism of frontier life provided the spiritual and moral bedrock of what would become the United States. The definitive break with the old European monarchies came with the American Revolution (1776) from which we emerged having asserted the freedom to create a new cultural identity.

Expansion and Growth (1776–1865) – The New American Culture Flourishes

Here our youthful and dynamic social and cultural life undergoes geographical, cultural, and political expansion. We see the rapid development of political institutions, religious revival movements (e.g., the Second Great Awakening), and a sense of national mission (Manifest Destiny). Major innovations in governance (the U.S. Constitution), literature (Transcendentalism, Romanticism), and political thought flourished in ways that buttressed our sense of freedom and purpose. But this enhancement comes with a shadow side. Tensions and conflicts over slavery and sectionalism foretell the social and economic fractures that will lead to crisis; the Civil War (1861–1865) became a turning point, solidifying the federal state’s supremacy and heralding a shift from a youthful, idealistic republic toward a centralized power structure.

Maturity and Imperial Reach (1865–1945) – American Culture Becomes Civilization

Spengler saw this phase as the point where a civilization enters its peak, transitioning from cultural creativity to administrative and economic consolidation. During this period in our history, our nation industrialized rapidly, emerging as a global economic power. The Gilded Age (1870s–1900) saw vast economic expansion but also growing inequality, reflecting the transition from a creative phase to a more materialist one. The Spanish-American War (1898) and U.S. involvement in World War I (1917) marked the beginning of imperial ambition, and the 1920s and 1930s showcased both cultural vibrancy (jazz, cinema, literature) and growing signs of decadence (excessive consumerism, economic speculation). Then in practically one swell foop, World War II (1941–1945) established the U.S. as an economic and military superpower, symbolizing the height of its civilizational influence.

Civilization and Global Hegemony (1945–2001) – Zenith Before Decline

Following the end of the second world war, we entered as a nation what Spengler called the "world city" phase, where a civilization reaches its apex but also begins to show signs of internal weakening. The Cold War (1947–1991) reflected the global expansion of American influence, mirroring the late Roman and British empires. Our technological and economic boom (1950s–1990s) represented a golden age of American power, even as materialism and bureaucratic complexity began to replace the pioneering spirit. The cultural revolutions of the 1960s and 1970s–civil rights, women’s liberation, anti-war, gay rights, environment–were indeed transformative, but they also reflected increasing social fragmentation. The 1980s and 1990s saw financial institutions and markets increase in size, complexity, and influence, moving our economy from an industrial base to speculative capitalism, a trend Spengler associated with civilizational decline. Then, when the Soviet Union collapsed (1991), the U.S. was left as the undisputed global hegemon, and hubris and overreach followed.

Decline and Disintegration (2001–Present) – The Twilight of Civilization

According to Spengler, late civilizations become dominated by materialism, bureaucracy, and loss of higher cultural purpose. In this regard, the 9/11 attacks (2001) marked both a literal and a symbolic shift from our nation’s unquestioned dominance to its perpetual crisis management. The so-called War on Terror (2001–2021) mirrors the late-stage imperial overreach seen in Rome and Britain, where prolonged wars drain national resources and morale. Spengler’s prediction of a civilization’s weakening of civic unity can be seen in our political polarization, institutional decline, and loss of trust in democratic governance. The dominance of finance, speculative capitalism, and Big Tech echoes Spengler’s view that economic complexity portends cultural exhaustion. Moreover, our declining birth rates, reliance on immigration, and demographic anxieties parallel the late Roman Empire’s struggles with sustaining its population. To this we could add the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) exposed deep institutional weaknesses and accelerated societal fragmentation. As difficult as it may be to hear, Spengler’s observation that new rising cultures eventually replace exhausted civilizations sheds light on our current military and economic competition with China.

The Future: Caesarism and Final Decline?

Spengler’s views go some distance in elucidating the increasing appeal of authoritarianism and strongman politics; if Spengler’s model holds, the U.S. may soon experience what he called Caesarism—a period where democratic institutions become hollowed and collapse in favor of a more authoritarian, centralized rule. This could come through economic collapse, a national security crisis, or social upheaval leading to a demand for a strong political leader to restore order, or drain the swamp, or downsize government, or secure our borders, or deport undocumented immigrants, or clean up our cities, or privilege homogeneity in social and economic spheres, or make America great again. Our most recent technological advancements (AI, surveillance, automation) could be used as tools for social control, much like how late Rome and other empires transitioned into bureaucratic authoritarian states.

Is Spengler Right?

By applying Spengler’s model to U.S. history, we see clear parallels between his predictions and current realities. This country has moved from a vibrant, spiritually-driven culture to an administratively complex, economically dominant, yet socially and politically fragmented civilization. While history is not entirely deterministic, and renewal is possible, the symptoms of our decline—cultural exhaustion, political instability, economic speculation, imperial overreach, and an appearance of authoritarianism on the horizon—are all present. Even though Spengler believed that decline was inevitable, I suppose it is possible that the U.S. could experience periods of renewal if it finds a new sense of purpose that embodies truth, justice, freedom, and equality for all. To be sure, societies have, at times, revitalized themselves through cultural renaissance, political reform, and the reaffirmation of foundational values. Whether the U.S. can reverse or mitigate its decline remains an open question, but understanding Spengler’s insights can provide a valuable framework for analyzing the trajectory of our modern civilization. In the end, Spengler’s vision serves as both a warning and a call to reflection. If the U.S. is indeed in the twilight of its civilizational arc, then the challenge ahead lies in navigating this period with wisdom, fostering a renewed sense of purpose, and perhaps laying the groundwork for the next great cultural flourishing.

Whether the U.S. experiences a final collapse or reinvents itself will depend on whether it can escape the fate of past civilizations that have followed this trajectory. If Spengler’s model holds true, we may be witnessing the closing chapters of the American empire, with the emergence of new powers poised to take its place. The deck is stacked against us.

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