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Tornado Outbreak Today from TX to MI Then mid MS to lower OH floods thru Sunday [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-04-02

A catastrophic weather pattern is developing for the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio river valleys. Extreme low level southerly winds are driving warm humid air from the Caribbean across the western Gulf of Mexico into the Mississippi river valley while a strong southwesterly jet stream aloft is overrunning that unstable humid air with cold dry air. Extreme low level spin called helicity has developed ahead of the cold frontal boundary creating the potential for intense tornadoes. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare level 5 highest level warming for severe storms.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z … THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

The area around Memphis TN is at highest risk of severe storms but severe storms possible from Texas to Michigan and from the lower Mississippi river valley to the Ohio river valley. Multiple long track EF3+ tornadoes will be catastrophic if they hit highly populated areas and unfortunately the river valleys are highly populated.

A large dome of warm sinking air off of the southeastern U.S. coast will stall the movement of jet stream waves, stalling a cold front and keeping it raining over the Mississippi river and Ohio river valleys for days. This is a set up for severe flooding

Unfortunately, the areas at highest risk of devastating storms today and tonight will not get relief from bad weather until Sunday (or so) because of a blocked jet stream pattern. A massive dome of warm sinking air has developed over the southeastern states extending offshore towards Bermuda. This jet stream pattern will cause the cold front to stall and heavy rains over the Mississippi river and lower Ohio river valleys to come in waves into the early weekend. There is a high probability of flash floods, followed by major river flooding developing into the weekend. Recovery from today’s and tonight’s tornado damage will be very challenging in this situation.

An extreme rainfall event is likely in the middle Mississippi river valley to the lower Ohio river valley over the next 5 days. Severe flooding can be expected.

The region impacted by this extreme weather is, with the notable exception of Memphis, the heart of conservative middle America. This region is getting slammed by climate change because at the core of climate change is the uptake of heat by the ocean. Ninety percent of the heat uptake caused by greenhouse gas increases goes into the oceans. The heating of the Gulf of Mexico leads to the intensification of severe weather systems across the American midcontinent because that heating leads to more energetic warm air masses blowing in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are 1.35C (2.4ºF) above normal. Warm humid air blowing off the Gulf into the American midcontinent has more potential energy for severe storm development.

The midcontinent region is going to need help from FEMA and other government organizations from this extreme events and others to come, but the present administration intends to defund, and perhaps eliminate FEMA. The GOP is abandoning its voters and leaving them to fend for themselves.

Of course, poor people are often forced to live in the low flood prone areas and in urban areas like Memphis many of those poor people are black. Whether they realize it (or not) rural white voters in the midcontinent are in the same climate change boat as urban black voters. Climate science denial and the denial of collective responsibility to care for eachother in times of crisis and danger by this administration will be a catastrophe for all Americans.

Please be prepared the best you can for the floods that are coming and take heed of warnings by NOAA. This is an extreme severe weather situation. The SPC usually has warnings at this level only every few years. There was one level 5 warning this year and it verified. Be careful out there.

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