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Contest Entry: NY 28-0 with 58% Obama or more. Finding limits. – Swing State Project [1]

[]

Date: 2023-12

First days I was try to down the maps, but I have much trouble until the last change in the application what help me very much.

The philosophy for my model is so easy. If you need more democratic votes for make more democratic the districts, you must go where they are, you must go to New York City. That gives us a linear model what seems a rainbow for the redistricting.

My model try to find the limits, and I can draw a map with very much 59% Obama districts (D+7) but not all, I need down for some districts to 58% Obama (D+6). The first limit what stop me making more democratic New York districts is the limit of box in the Westchester County for can access with more districts to the area of New York City. The second limit would be the VRA conditions.

For make more compact the districts, but without lose the linear model, you only need down more districts to 58% Obama.

IMAGES:

DETAILS:

Only E Massa change his district number. He pass from 29th to 26th. All other democratis incumbents keep his number district.

P King and C Lee, the republican incumbents lose their districts.

Sometimes the areas where lives the incumbents are excessively big. I try to include all the areas in their districts, but for the 2nd, 8th, 14th and 15th districts I need to take some parts for other districts. Knowing exactly where live the incumbents would not be difficult to leave they in their districts.

I don’t include McCain results because i can not see the end of the line of results. The line get cut without pass to a second line.

District 01:



– Incumbent: T Bishop



– Dark blue in Long Island.



– Population: 706,022 with deviation of +5,689



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 02:



– Incumbent: S Israel



– Dark green in Long Island, from Nassau until Suffolk.



– Population: 706,389 with deviation of +6,056



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 03:



– Incumbent: vacant



– Purple in western New York, linear district from Chautauqua until Manhattan.



– Population: 698,741 with deviation of -1,592



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 62%; Bl 7%; Hi 27%; As 2%.

District 04:



– Incumbent: C McCarthy and maybe P King (R)



– Red in Long Island, linear district from Queens until Suffolk.



– Population: 707,202 with deviation of +6,887



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 54%; Bl 15%; Hi 15%; As 9%.

District 05:



– Incumbent: G Ackerman



– Dark yellow in Long Island, from Queens until Nassau.



– Population: 704,967 with deviation of +4,634



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 52%; Bl 7%; Hi 14%; As 24%.

District 06:



– Incumbent: G Meeks



– Dark greenish blue in Long Island, from Brooklin until Nassau.



– Population: 694,093 with deviation of -6,240



– 2008 elections: 79% Obama D+27.



– Racially: Wh 32%; Bl 50%; Hi 10%; As 5%. VRA district

District 07:



– Incumbent: J Crowley



– Gray in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.



– Population: 696,707 with deviation of -3,626



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 51; Bl 3%; Hi 24%; As 18%.

District 08:



– Incumbent: J Nadler



– Light purplish blue in western New York, linear district from Erie until Manhattan (Upper West Side).



– Population: 706,893 with deviation of +6,350



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 09:



– Incumbent: A Weiner



– Light tuquoise in Long Island, from Queens until Suffolk.



– Population: 694,038 with deviation of -6,295



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 61%; Bl 10%; Hi 18%; As 8%.

District 10:



– Incumbent: E Towns



– Dark pink in New York City, Brooklin.



– Population: 693,891 with deviation of -6,442



– 2008 elections: 82% Obama D+30.



– Racially: Wh 26%; Bl 50%; Hi 13%; As 8%. VRA district

District 11:



– Incumbent: Y Clarke



– Light green in New York City, Brooklin.



– Population: 693,935 with deviation of -6,398



– 2008 elections: 85% Obama D+33.



– Racially: Wh 31%; Bl 50%; Hi 11%; As 4%. VRA district

District 12:



– Incumbent: N Velázquez



– Blue in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.



– Population: 695,534 with deviation of -4,799



– 2008 elections: 84% Obama D+32.



– Racially: Wh 29%; Bl 11%; Hi 48%; As 8%. VRA district

District 13:



– Incumbent: M McMahon



– Salmon in New York City, from Staten Island until Manhattan by water link.



– Population: 706,942 with deviation of +6,609



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 8%; Hi 13%; As 11%.

District 14:



– Incumbent: C Maloney



– Dark brownish green in New York City and Long Island, from Manhattan until north Suffolk.



– Population: 706,712 with deviation of +6,379



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 81%; Bl 3%; Hi 7%; As 6%.

District 15:



– Incumbent: C Rangel



– Orange in New York City, from Manhattan until Queens.



– Population: 695,108 with deviation of -5,225



– 2008 elections: 86% Obama D+34.



– Racially: Wh 44%; Bl 14%; Hi 27%; As 12%. VRA district

District 16:



– Incumbent: J Serrano



– Green in New York City, Bronx.



– Population: 693,589 with deviation of -6,744



– 2008 elections: 95% Obama D+43.



– Racially: Wh 3%; Bl 32%; Hi 61%; As 1%. VRA district

District 17:



– Incumbent: E Engel



– Dark purplish blue in the south of western New York, linear district neighboring Pennsylvania, from Chautauqua until Manhattan (Upper West Side).



– Population: 706,897 with deviation of +6,564



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 5%; Hi 10%; As 3%.

District 18:



– Incumbent: N Lowey



– Light Yellow in northern New York, from Dutchess until Queens.



– Population: 695,784 with deviation of -4,549



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 6%; Hi 16%; As 6%.

District 19:



– Incumbent: J Hall



– Green in northern New York, from Saratoga and Washington until Putnam.



– Population: 693,403 with deviation of -6,930



– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+6.



– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 20:



– Incumbent: S Murphy



– Light pink in northern New York, from Jefferson until the Bronx.



– Population: 703,781 with deviation of +3,448



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 70%; Bl 19%; Hi 7%; As 2%.

District 21:



– Incumbent: P Tonko



– Dark red in northern New York, linear district from Oswego until the Bronx.



– Population: 706,364 with deviation of +6,031



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 67%; Bl 14%; Hi 13%; As 3%.

District 22:



– Incumbent: M Hinckey



– Brown in western New York, linear district from Erie until the Bronx.



– Population: 706,466 with deviation of +6,133



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 9%; Hi 20%; As 3%.

District 23:



– Incumbent: W Owens



– Ligth turquoise in northern New York, from Syracuse until Albany.



– Population: 693,837 with deviation of -6,496



– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 90%; Bl 5%; Hi 2%; As 1%.

District 24:



– Incumbent: M Arcuri



– Dark purple in western New York, linear district from Ontario until Manhattan.



– Population: 695,810 with deviation of -4,523



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 72%; Bl 16%; Hi 8%; As 2%.

District 25:



– Incumbent: D Maffei



– Pink in western New York, from Buffalo until Onondaga.



– Population: 693,428 with deviation of -6,905



– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 87%; Bl 8%; Hi 2%; As 2%.

District 26:



– Incumbent: E Massa



– Dark gray in western New York, from Steuben until Rockland.



– Population: 700,655 with deviation of +322



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 7%; Hi 7%; As 3%.

District 27:



– Incumbent: B Higgins and C Lee (R)



– Green in western New York, from Erie until Monroe.



– Population: 693,889 with deviation of -6,444



– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 78%; Bl 14%; Hi 4%; As 1%.

District 28:



– Incumbent: L Slaughter



– Light purple in western New York, Monroe.



– Population: 693,567 with deviation of -6,766



– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.



– Racially: Wh 77%; Bl 13%; Hi 5%; As 2%.

They are four districts in 58% Obama. You can increase three of they until 59% Obama, but the fourth down until 55-56% Obama (D+3 or D+4) because can not access to the New York City area.

Well, sure republicans will hate this model, and maybe democrats smile. New York gives the chance of a good redistricting for democrats.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win? 1-5%

6-10%

11-15%

16-20%

20%+ View Results

[END]
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[1] Url: https://swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/contest-entry-ny-280-with-58-obama-or-more-finding-limits

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