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If 2024 is a Dem Victory, What Happens in 2026? [1]

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Date: 2023-11-10

It's the morning of November 6th, 2024. As the last mail-in ballots are counted and the dust settles, it’s clear that Joe Biden has (barely) won most of the swing states, and Dems have (barely) won the House and Senate. Across the country we celebrate our triumph as Trumpism is defeated yet again.

I really do believe this will happen, especially given yet another excellent election night this week. If it does though, what does 2025-2026 look like? While it's too early to make real predictions, it's interesting to look ahead and game out what may happen. Please read and respectfully discuss in the comments!

Generic Political Climate of 2026:

Obviously there's no way of knowing what the political climate will be in 2026, but we can make some starting assumptions and then modulate them. Since Carter, no party has held a trifecta for 2 consecutive terms (except 2002-2004). Further, 2 term presidents usually have a rough second midterm (the 6th year itch curse). After Dem victories in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024, will the electorate finally have a real backlash against Dems? That may depend on how voters respond to new Dem legislation, and if the GOP can reform itself into something palatable to suburban voters again. But as a starting assumption, it seems likely to be the reddest year since 2016, and we will likely lose control of the House, maybe the senate, and some number of governorships.

Dem Legislation 2025-2026:

The Dem House caucus at this point is purged of pro-life members (except Cuellar), and is united behind Jeffries, with Pelosi still in office to help steer the (speaker)ship. Comparing the future Dem Senate caucus to the 2021-2022 caucus, the most "institutionalist" members (Manchin, Sinema, Feinstein) will be gone. This opens the door to filibuster reform and passing major legislation, such as: voting rights and ending gerrymandering, healthcare (regulating big pharma, ACA public option), reviving Build Back Better, new climate and clean energy bills, gun control, supreme court reform, and immigration reform. There's a chance we could even make DC a state finally. Awesome! Even so, historically it looks like a trifecta passing big bills usually leads to a that party getting punished the following midterm (1994, 2006, 2010, 2018, 2022) rather than rewarded (1934?!), so I’m not sure it helps us win 2026.

Voter anger over abortion is the central reason we held on so well in 2022, and that’s why we are going to win in 2024 too. Thus, one of our very top priorities will be establishing a national right to abortion. While this is obviously the right move to make, could it lead to a drop in voter/volunteer/donor intensity in 2026/2028? That may depend on if the GOP can manage to moderate at all on the issue, which they probably can't.

GOP Reformation:

Hopefully by 2025, Trump will be screaming about fraud from his jail cell. After yet another major loss, does the MAGA movement flame out? Probably not. In 2024, quite a few of the 20ish anti-Jim Jordan House GOP members will be replaced by MAGA loyalists via retirements/primaries, or will be defeated in the general election as Dems take the house. This further shrinks the 'supposedly moderate' wing of the party. In the Senate, this faction has been melting more slowly but still steadily, and it's unclear if a McConnell ally (Thune, Cornyn) will be able to keep control of the caucus after KY replaces Mitch with a MAGAt in 2026 (or earlier). These folks are mostly looking for attention and are probably content to keep these seats and not legislate for quite a long time. I doubt they will be able to completely stop themselves from nominating total wackos in swing seats, which helps us. If the GOP double triples down on white supremacy, ending democracy, and banning abortion, it might give Dems a shot at breaking even in 2026 like we did in 2022.

Senate Races 2026: possible hold, only 3-7 battleground states.

The seats up in 2026 are the same as in 2020, when Dems had two excellent special election pickups (AZ, GA) and one incredible victory beating an incumbent (GA), but many disappointing losses in tough states (IA, KS, ME, MT, NC, SC). This year Dems are defending 13 seats to the GOP's 20, but there are only 3 Dem and 4 GOP seats in real competition.

Dems will be defending Ossoff in GA, Peters in MI, and Shaheen in NH. All are strong incumbents in states that are trending blue; if they hold on we will keep the senate. In a terrible year, GOP opportunities include CO, MN, NM, and VA, but I don't really expect these seats to get on the board.

Meanwhile, the GOP is defending seats in AK, ME, NC and TX which could be in play. In AK, Peltola could make it a real race, but she might want to wait for a better cycle (maybe replacing Murkowski in 2028). In ME, will Susan Collins ever actually lose? Anything could happen but seems tough. In NC and TX, these seats would be in play in a blue year but might be out of reach in a red year. They also are under complete GOP control and voting restriction shenanigans will be abundant. Still, we will have to contest them. Other 2020 target states just aren’t gonna happen (IA, KS, MT, SC).

Overall prediction: Dems hang on with strong incumbents, only seat pickups are in DC if statehood happens.

House Races 2026: Slim loss.

The house is inherently swingy, and history says we lose the house in 2026 if we win the trifecta in 2024. But thanks to gerrymandering, there's very few seats left that can swing. 2022 already had the smallest house battleground map ever, and 2024 and 2026 will have an even smaller one thanks to NC and NY gerrymandering. Creating new VRA districts in AL LA GA FL will raise our floor, without adding swing seats. The one longshot is if Dems pass an anti-gerrymandering bill which forces fair maps for 2026 in TX, FL and other red states; I'm not sure if this is actually possible though. So, a GOP majority will probably be very small and full of MAGA clowns.

Overall prediction: slim GOP house majority, total chaos 2027-2028.

Governor races 2025-2026: Tough.

Voters tend to be less polarized for governor races than federal ones, and it seems that voters often pick the party opposite of the last governor and the current president. Given that, we are facing some headwinds here. With 2030 redistricting on the far horizon, it will be essential for 2025-2026 state level dems to pass voting rights and fair redistricting laws wherever they can before the 2026/2030(?) damage is done.

In 2025 we have two key open seat governor races in VA and NJ. As we've seen this week, both are blue states federally but are open to GOP at the state level with the right candidate. I’d assume VA is a tossup and NJ is probably lean D.

In 2026, we are defending many seats in swing states. We did AMAZING in 2022 at keeping our governors from the 2018 blue wave, but some of these incumbents will be termed out in 2026 (KS, ME, MI, NM). We will probably lose KS but I'm optimistic about keeping the rest. In other states we will have strong incumbents run for a third term (WI, maybe MN) or 2022 winners up for a second term (AZ, OR, PA, and ... NY). If we win NH in 2024 we will be defending it in 2026, no idea what happens there.

The only good pickup opportunity is in NV, but GOP Gov. Lombardo seems to be playing things right to sweep a second term. That’s not terrible as the dems will likely have a supermajority in the legislature. The wildcards are in AK, GA and TX; in a red year they aren't likely to flip our way, but we will need to run strong campaigns anyways, especially for contesting the senate seats and downballot races. There really aren't other good targets; FL IA OH OK MT SC are all too red.

Overall prediction: lose 1 for sure, with 7ish more at risk.

Conclusion:

If Trump is the nominee in 2024, I think we will win across the board. After Trump finally starts to fade as an electoral motivator (outside of primaries), and if abortion rights are codified, then 2026 might look like a more standard midterm from the 2010s. In that case, we don't have too much to lose federally, but at the state level we will have some struggles.

Discuss!

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