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Virginia House of Delegates and State Senate: Final 2023 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-11-02

Given that the VA elections are less than a week away, I thought it would be a good time to provide my final ratings for both the House of Delegates and the State Senate. While I don’t eliminate toss-ups in my final ratings (unlike a lot of other prognosticators), I am projecting how I believe the toss-ups will fall, as a way of giving a full prediction of the chambers. (I did this with my VA 2021 ratings as well.) The House of Delegates chart is at the very top of the post, while the State Senate chart is immediately below

There are currently no rating changes for any of the State Senate seats. However, there are four rating changes in the House of Delegates, three of which favor Republicans and one of which favors Dems.

The one leftward rating is for HD 89, which is now a Toss Up (having previously been classified as Lean Republican). This rating change is due to the strong fundraising of Democratic candidate Karen Jenkins, as she has recently outraised her Republican opponent. Democrats seem to have very narrowly carried the district at the congressional level in 2022, so it’s definitely possible for Dems to win this house race (as the 2022 midterms seem to be a fairly good indicator).

Conversely, HD 57 has been moved to Lean Republican (from Toss Up). This rating change is due to the sex/porn “scandal” of Democratic candidate Susanna Gibson. While it’s unclear how much of a negative impact the scandal will have on Gibson, as she has still been able to fundraise, it should be noted that a recent poll had her losing by about 10 to 11 points (though the poll was from a right-leaning pollster, which raises questions about its accuracy). Regardless, it seems reasonable to give the GOP a slight edge here now.

In HD 69, the Democratic candidate withdrew from the race. With no Dem running, the seat is obviously Safe Republican now (as opposed to Likely Republican).

Finally, HD 34 has also been moved to Safe Republican (from Likely Republican). My original rating was arguably a stretch to begin with and my main justification (for the original rating) was the close 2020 presidential result. However, upon further reflection, I don’t see any way that the Dems will be able to win the seat this cycle, given that the GOP carried it by a decent 14-point margin in 2022 at the congressional level. In addition, it doesn’t seem that the Democrats are really putting any resources into the district (though this could also be said about a lot of other GOP-held seats that I am still considering competitive).

I should point out that in my previous VA ratings update, I changed the rating for HD 21, arguing that Joe Biden’s large margin was somewhat of an anomaly, given the other data points. It turns out (from what I have read) that the reported Biden margin was actually incorrect (i.e. too large) due to issues with the data from Prince Williams County (PwC). It’s unclear whether the Biden margins in any of the other PwC house and senate districts are inaccurate, but they seemed reasonable for the most part, so I haven’t felt the need to change any of the ratings. (Biden’s margin in SD 30 did seem somewhat higher than expected, but this was already accounted for in the initial rating for the district).

I realize that most of the seats classified as Likely Republican are not being seriously contested by the Democrats, but I am cautiously keeping them on the board.

Lastly, there are a few notes on candidates. In SD 27, Matt Strickland, who lost the GOP primary to Tara Durant, is running as a write-in. While this (along with Durant’s recent controversies) should be a plus for the Democrats, it should also be noted that there is a third-party Independent candidate on the ballot, who seems to be to the left of the Dem nominee and will likely siphon off Dem support.

In SD 12, Republican incumbent Amanda Chase lost her primary, while in HD 84, Democratic candidate Nadarius Clark actually resigned from the chamber several months back to relocate to this district and is not technically an incumbent. The charts have been updated with both of these seats labeled “Open.”

My overall assessment for the chambers is the same as before (with the House of Delegates being a Toss Up and the State Senate being Lean Democrat). The rating changes in HDs 89 and 57 cancel each other out, and the changes for HDs 34 and 69 really don’t impact my overall assessment, as these seats were reaches for Dems to begin with. My overall rating for the house might seem a bit bearish for Dems, but again, I prefer to err on the side of caution. I should also note that there is chance that the chamber could be tied at 50D – 50R, which would result in a power sharing agreement, with neither party having a majority.

In addition, If I was forced to pick the house toss-ups, I would give Democrats the edge in HDs 21, 82, and 97, and Republicans the edge in HDs 22 and 89. Assuming both parties win all the other seats they are favored in, this puts the house at a 52D – 48R Dem majority, flipping control of the chamber.

With regards to the senate toss-ups, I would give Dems the edge in SD 24 and Republicans the edge in SDs 17 and 27. Again, assuming both parties win all the other seats they are favored in, this would bring the senate to a 22D – 18R Dem majority, which is also the chamber’s current balance.

For reference, my previous VA ratings update post is titled “Virginia State Senate and House of Delegates 2023 Ratings Update.”

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the 2022 congressional and remaining statewide results of the new districts).

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