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Ukraine Invasion Day 617: a positional form of war appears [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-11-01

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on November 1 that the war in Ukraine has taken on a positional nature and offered a series of recommendations for Ukraine to restore maneuver to the battlespace.[1]

In an essay entitled "Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It" and an interview with The Economist, Zaluzhnyi outlined the current operational environment in Ukraine and noted that, despite several previously successful Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2022, the war is now "gradually moving to a positional form."[2] Zaluzhnyi heavily stressed that the current positional nature of the war is largely a result of military parity between Ukrainian and Russian forces, noting that a deep and dramatic Ukrainian penetration of Russian lines will likely not be possible with the relative technological and tactical equilibrium currently between Ukrainian and Russian forces.[3] In his interview with The Economist, Zaluzhnyi acknowledged that technological and tactical parity between opposing forces in Ukraine has resulted in a "stalemate" similar to the case of the First World War.[4] In the more extensive essay on the subject, Zaluzhnyi notably refrained from classifying the situation as a full stalemate and instead framed it as a "positional" war resulting from aspects of this technological-tactical parity.[5] www.understandingwar.org/... He outlines how those aims can be achieved and what has to be done both internally and also within the context of the international community to achieve that goal. The most important point - in my opinion - is his recommendations of extending Ukraine's indigenous military industry. What is less known is that Ukraine has considerably changed the way how to produce weapon-grade products since February 2022. Before, Ukraine's industrial military complex resembled more of what we saw in the Soviet Union. It was made up primarily by state-owned, very inefficient and corrupt entities. This has changed, considerably. Since the open war, a huge amount of startups have been created and they deliver a very efficient stream of innovative products, especially when it comes to the drone industry. Since those products are tested on a daily base in real life situations, they achieve proficiency which rival large military companies all over the world. Ukraine has a good chance to follow Israel in that matter which was also forced to built up a home-grown weapon's industry and which is considered today one of the best in the world.General Zalushny statements are a sobering reminder that despite Russia shortcomings it is imperative not to underestimate the enemy. Russia still enjoys some significant advantages, which thanks to the Ukrainian ingenuity but also heroism as well as the support from the West has been compensated. But more has to be done in order to conclude this war and throw Russia back to the 1991 borders without enduring a war which goes on for many years. This also requires the West to finally use its high potential and increase production facilities. We will need them not only for Ukraine, but also for ourselves. https://t.co/DyvN6nynlf x A no-bs piece by @CinC_AFU on what’s needed militarily to win the war:



- air power,

- much-improved electronic-warfare,

- better counter-battery capabilities,

- new mine-breaching technology,

- ability to mobilise & train more reserves.#StandWithUkrainehttps://t.co/jYzImO7zIT — olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) November 1, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[26] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Zelenopillya (12km southwest of Bakhmut) and along a section of the railway line between Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[27] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced from Shcherbaky (18km west of Orikhiv) towards Myrne (16km southwest of Orikhiv) and made gains west of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv).[28] www.understandingwar.org/...

x Zelenskyy: Ukraine's success in battle for Black Sea will be in history bookshttps://t.co/gPZfZq8yKO — Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) November 1, 2023

x Two weeks since President @ZelenskyyUa first confirmed delivery of ATACMS missiles from the US, reports continue to mount of highly destructive ATACMS strikes against the Russian army in Ukraine, writes @MBielieskov in #UkraineAlert.



Read more. ⬇️ https://t.co/RvJvBwRzi7 — Atlantic Council (@AtlanticCouncil) November 1, 2023

KYIV, Nov 1 (Reuters) - A Russian drone attack set ablaze the Kremenchuk oil refinery in central Ukraine and knocked out power supply in three villages, while battlefield reports said Ukrainian forces had repelled Russian attacks in frontline sectors in the east and northeast. The fire at the Kremenchuk refinery, which Moscow has targeted many times and the Kyiv government says is not operational, was quickly put out, said Filip Pronin, head of Poltava region's military administration. The extent of the damage was not clear. Ukraine's Air Force said air defences shot down 18 of 20 drones and a missile fired by Russia overnight before they reached their targets in an attack that sought to strike military and critical infrastructure. "The focus of the attack was Poltava region, it was attacked in several waves," Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat told national television. The General Staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said troops had repelled eight Russian attacks near Kupiansk in the northeast, five near the shattered eastern town of Bakhmut, held by Russian forces, and five further south near Avdiivka, a focal point of Russian assaults since mid-October. www.reuters.com/...

Key Takeaways: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on November 1 that the war in Ukraine has taken on a positional nature and offered a series of recommendations for Ukraine to restore maneuver to the battlespace. Zaluzhnyi offered a series of specific tactical solutions to the five aforementioned operational components that have created the conditions for positional warfare, which in his view will allow Ukraine to overcome military parity with Russian forces.

Russian forces are likely preparing for another wave of highly attritional infantry-led ground assaults on Ukrainian positions in the Avdiivka area.

The current situation near Avdiivka is a microcosm of the Russian General Staff’s wider failure to internalize and disseminate lessons learned by Russian forces during previous failed offensive efforts in Ukraine to other force groupings throughout the theater.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 1.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reiterated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s framing of ongoing Ukrainian ground activity on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast as part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian forces conducted a relatively large series of drone and missile strikes mainly targeting Poltava Oblast on the night of October 31 to November 1.

The Russian military appears poised to re-establish its military districts as the primary joint headquarters for its ground forces while transferring naval assets back to the command of the Russian Navy.

Russian sources speculated that Pavel Prigozhin, the son of deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, is officially the acting head of Wagner remnants operating under the auspices of Rosgvardia.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut direction, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in various sectors of the front. www.understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - NOV 1



■ Continued high level of activity, strikes & combat engagements well above average

■ Triple-digit equipment losses but troop losses below 7-day average

■ Oryx: 39 🇷🇺 21 🇺🇦 added to records, 30-day ratio currently at 3.4x



📈 https://t.co/PZwdkiJb1y pic.twitter.com/rBM8pUfXOJ — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) November 1, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued localized offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on November 1 and made confirmed gains. Geolocated footage published on October 31 indicates that Russian forces advanced east of Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk).[40] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled over 10 Russian assaults near Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk), Ivanivka (21km southeast of Kupyansk), Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove), and Nadiya (14km southwest of Svatove).[41] Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces continue their attempts to recapture Kupyansk but have not achieved any strategic success in the Kupyansk direction.[42] ...The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces did not conduct any offensive actions in the Lyman direction on November 1.[45] A Russian milblogger claimed on October 31 that Russian forces made marginal advances in the direction of Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna) and Torske (14km west of Kreminna), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.[46] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on November 1 but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to improve their positions near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) and attacked near Pivdenne (20km southwest of Bakhmut) but did not advance.[49] Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo noted that Russian forces are bringing reserves to the Bakhmut area to renew active offensive operations after being on the defensive, although ISW has not yet observed indicators of Russian reserves arriving in the Bakhmut direction or the presence of additional Russian troops in the Bakhmut area.[50] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian forces are likely preparing for another wave of highly attritional infantry-led ground assaults on Ukrainian positions in the Avdiivka area. … Russian forces may be conducting an interdiction campaign against Ukrainian assets in the Avdiivka area, but this heavy fire is more likely air and artillery preparation for the battlefield ahead of another wave of Russian assaults.[17]...Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun also notably stated on October 30 that Russian forces are preparing to conduct “meat assaults” (colloquial jargon for infantry-led frontal assaults) near Avdiivka and are training “Storm-Z” assault units made largely of convict recruits for future assaults without equipment.[19] Russian forces may be preparing to transition to such infantry-led frontal assaults following heavy artillery preparation to compensate for heavy materiel losses in Avdiivka over the course of October. Open-source geolocation project GeoConfirmed used commercially available satellite imagery to verify that Russian forces have suffered at least 197 damaged and destroyed vehicles since October 9, losing 99 vehicles during the first wave of assaults between October 9 and 13, 94 vehicles during the second wave between October 14 and 23, and four confirmed and 18 potentially lost vehicles between October 24 and31.[20] GeoConfirmed characterized the Russian effort near Avdiivka as the costliest Russian effort thus far in the war in Ukraine.[21] Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on November 1 and reportedly advanced. ... A Ukrainian soldier reported that Russian forces are also conducting attacks south of Avdiivka from Vodyane (6km southwest of Avdiivka) towards Sieverne.[57] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Avdiivka, Sieverne, Pervomaiske, Keramik, and Stepove (5km northwest of Avdiivka).[58] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Ukrainian forces did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on November 1. Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on November 1 and reportedly recently advanced. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults near Prechystivka, (19km southeast of Velyka Novosilka) Zolota Nyva (11km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), and Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka).[65] ...The Russian “Vostok” battalion, which is reportedly operating southeast of Velyka Novosilka, claimed that Russian forces made some advances in unspecified areas near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border on October 31.[67]

x Movement of Ukrainian troops near Krynky, left bank of the Kherson region 🫡 pic.twitter.com/OBGCKkKB71 — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 1, 2023

x 👀 Ukraine received an additional 40 French AMX-10RC, – Вulgarianmilitary. pic.twitter.com/TChtjALvXW — MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) November 1, 2023

x According to Bloomberg (which cites a South Korean lawmaker), the DPRK has sent Russia more than a million artillery rounds for the war in Ukraine.



This is approximately the amount of ammunition Russia spends on the war with Ukraine in two months. Presumably, in exchange for… pic.twitter.com/2Y8mTGhkOY — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 1, 2023

x Russia faces new seizure of assets abroad worth $60 billion



Having lost half of its $300 billion in international reserves as a result of sanctions over the war in #Ukraine, #Russia could lose up to $60 billion more in foreign assets.#London's High Court ruled Wednesday that… pic.twitter.com/OlvbInWKXG — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 1, 2023

x Russian MP Boris Vishnevsky from "Yabloko" faction has had his microphone cut off in Legislative Assembly of Saint Petersburg when he spoke from the tribune about peace talks with Ukraine.



The deputy said that "Yabloko" is in favor of an early ceasefire and the start of… pic.twitter.com/nM7ciGG0xT — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 1, 2023

x Please help me protect life in Ukraine. Russia has targeted Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. This means the water supplies and energy supplies that people need to stay alive, especially throughout the winter. Last winter Russia tried to freeze the Ukrainians. 1/ — Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) November 1, 2023

x Over the month of October, Ukraine has successfully reclaimed approximately 50 km² from Russian forces.



This means that Russia currently occupies a total of 17.48% of Ukraine. https://t.co/SitjzBhrsX pic.twitter.com/l8BqulmSAJ — War Mapper (@War_Mapper) November 1, 2023

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