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Why is Russia Defending in Front of Their Defenses? A Theory. [1]

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Date: 2023-08-15

Before you read this, nothing I say here impugns Ukraine, its efforts, its fighters, its successes, or its strategies. This looks at Russian thinking. It also is simply a suggestion. This idea has been knocking around in my head for a couple of weeks and I wanted to see what the community thought. The following question has been asked repeatedly (including by me and especially by Kos): “Why are the Russians defending so hard in front of their own prepared defensive positions and even counterattacking to regain forward positions they have lost?” It’s insane! So, why don’t they fall back to prepared defenses? I’ve just finished reading another diary with a historical bent to it. It’s a possible explanation. My explanation is much simpler: They don’t fall back because they don’t have to. And it would look bad.

Back in the fall and winter, Russia saw that the land bridge was vulnerable. They saw the promises of heavy western weapons flowing to Ukraine. In January, there was the start of the flow of a couple hundred top shelf heavy western tanks. From the old Soviet days, they believe in tanks rolling through the Fulda Gap vanquishing all enemies to their front! It was their strategy then and it is their strategy now. The fact that they can’t make it happen is another story.

They saw their own lack of supply and knew that they at least needed to PREPARE for that worst-case scenario which was a massive Ukrainian attack punching through lines to the south, rolling over Russian defenses and Russian units all the way to the sea cutting everything in half. So, they dug their ditches, they put out their mines, and they brought in their tiny concrete pyramids. All of the visible digging work was done starting 5-15 km behind the existing defensive positions with extensive minefields and their existing manned positions to their front. Then they put in more lines behind those.

And then the dreaded Ukrainian offensive started.

And nothing really happened.

The minefields (covered by fire) were all that was really needed. They didn’t HAVE to fall back to their prepared defensive works and fight for their lives. They fought from their previously occupied front line positions successfully, in many cases.

These front line positions were breached with varying success in four locations in the south and, after a week or two, these breaches were shallow and narrow. They were not followed by overwhelming force rolling through the Fulda Gap defensive lines towards the sea. Minefields. Minefields covered by fire (as all obstacles should be) is all that was really needed to thwart an armored punch.

In a situation reminiscent of the first weeks of the war, but in reverse, Russia had bought into the hype of a huge attack that would punch through their lines and push them back and it didn’t happen. Just like they didn’t roll through the streets of Kyiv.

The Russians: “So, we aren’t going to be sliced in half in two weeks. What is important now? How to we win this situation? PROPAGANDA and POLITICS! Now, we see an off-ramp. If we can show that the counterattack has “failed,” (Don’t beat me up. This is the Russians talking.) we can hang on and wait this thing out.”

How do non-military folk gauge success? TERRITORY! LAND! ACRES! We (the Russians) need to not be seen as losing territory . Therefore, we will try to hang on to EVERYTHING. We will not fall back to our prepared defenses because a) we don’t really need to and b) falling back loses 5-15 km of territory every place we do it. Across the front, that’s hundreds and hundreds of square kms.

To date since the beginning of June (10 weeks), Russia has lost approximately 275 sq km (+/- 10% depending whose map you believe). That’s roughly the size of Gallatin County, KY (above). This does not include the few sq km they have lost since then in other places (e.g. Luhansk). Had Russia fallen back along the southern front (the “reservoir” to Olhynka) that number would be something like 1200-1500 sq km.

What would the all important headlines say if Russia had fallen back to the prepared defenses everywhere? “Russia falls back 15 KM at XXXX and at YYYY!” “Russia in Full Retreat!” Russian bloggers would be screaming bloody murder. Ukrainian supporters would be crowing.

DKos would be crowing, too. JUBILANT!

So right now, what are we hearing? Almost nothing. Nothing except peace plans and Chinese and Saudis and meetings and newspaper articles and reporters in helmets standing the same place they were four weeks ago and speeches and i diots Republicans and polling number…

And DKos is full of doubt and unease. The updates are on politics and Africa and peace meetings and logistics and newspaper articles instead of battlefield reports.

Could defending in front of defenses work? It might just. The Ukrainians need to sell Season Three of the series “War in Europe: the Story of Ukraine’s Glorious Victory” so that it gets the equipment it needs to produce the show. Russia is not playing to the script. I know I’ll catch hell for that one, but I’m referring to Zelenskyy’s show business background and the fact that this is actually what he is doing (because he has to ) ! And he has done a masterful job thus far.

This does not mean that destroying Russia’s artillery and logistics won’t eventually be a winning strategy for Ukraine. It is probably the way to go. Actually, who am I kidding? It’s about the only option. It’s just that those things were going to happen regardless of Russia’s actions. The Russians are playing their only card. Use defense and time to turn public opinion. To do that, you need to not lose territory.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/15/2186322/-Why-is-Russia-Defending-in-Front-of-Their-Defenses-A-Theory

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