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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023 - Muddled Forecast [1]

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Date: 2023-05-27

hurricane Ian from last year...the 2023 season is upon us, might as well consider the shop open

I came across this story after I looked at the surface map from Nullschool.net and wondered about a distinct surface low off of South Carolina. That prompted me to look at the National Hurricane Center’s site and saw this

attribution NOAA/NHC (embiggen)

What I saw on Nullschool was this

Yeah, that’s a big front through the Atlantic, but on May 27 that cut-off low says HELLO! attribution earth.nullschool.net (embiggen)

The linked story basically says that there is little consensus in the forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane seasons. Sea surface temperatures are really high, providing a lot of fuel for tropical systems, but the coming el-Nino will likely create unfavorable shear in the upper atmosphere. So two conflicting mechanisms, no one knows which will be dominant.

I actually saw the low off of South Carolina in a more close up fashion — I open up Nullschool in a not too close upview of Florida, but close enough that the low dominated the picture and the long, draping front was not visible. So my thought was “this is early”

Surface winds for this disturbance 5/27/2023 ~ 8 AM (via Nullschool) embiggen

Having some meteorological training, I looked at the 500 mb flow, and thought that while chaotic, it does have a little “tropical flavor”

500 mb of the 2023-05-27 disturbance; green circle is the approximate center of the surface circulation. Again, from Nullschool (embiggenate)

So the short term forecast is this little mess gets pushed into the coast before it has any chance to develop. If it were in the Gulf of Mexico it might just have that time — as this is a little further north, the rotation of the earth has more of an effect in the dynamics of the steering currents…

I agree with the forecast, but am a little concerned that the idea this hurricane season is “average” might be missing something.

Be Safe. Be Prepared.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/27/2171704/-Atlantic-Hurricane-Season-2023-Muddled-Forecast

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