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Senate Swing State? Hope Springs Is Knocking on Doors and Building out Data in Arizona and Nevada [1]

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Date: 2023-05-19

2024 Electoral College Battleground Map

If you are keeping up with U.S. Senate elections, you no doubt have heard “2024 is a very difficult map for Democrats.” Which is true. But that isn’t stopping us from making sure Democrats retain a majority in the Senate, even if it is 50-50. Kamala Harris remains our secret weapon (or is that salvation?) in those terms. Given that everyone expects West Virginia to turn to Republicans (we still don’t know what Joe Manchin will do), many people believe that 50-50 is the best we can hope for. Which means we have to win every other competitive Senate race.

2024 Senate Battleground Map

Central to that is Arizona and Nevada. Which why we have been canvassing in these states as soon as the weather permitted.

Hope Springs from Field PAC has been canvassing in Arizona since March 11th and in Nevada since April. Winning Arizona is regarded as tricky since Kyrsten Sinema changed her party status. But Ruben Gallego has proven to be more resilient than expected, as we have been finding at the doors!

Arizonans have decided that this election, 2024, is all about Donald Trump and Trump would (again) be driving how Arizonans voted next year.

197 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson last Saturday in the Arizona Congressional Districts First, Fourth and Sixth. They knocked on 14,075 doors and talked to 1,231 voters. 780 of those voters filled out at least part of the Issues Survey.

Inflation was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to Saturday (again). I continue to be surprised, since inflation continues to fall despite concerns it might rise this month. Housing (both availability and difficulty in selling were frequently mentioned) was the #2 issue concern. Economic Uncertainty was the third most frequently raised issue on Saturday.

Approval Ratings in Arizona

Biden Approval among the Arizonans we talked to was at 49% last Saturday and 13% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 10% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 33% expressed Disapproval. We ask ask about whether vote Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 51% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman. (We are not asking about disapproval of the Congressman yet.)

44% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Hobbs was doing a good job, 9% said they disapproved of the job she was doing. Because some of our volunteers want to compare Sinema disapproval numbers to Rep. Ruben Gallego’s approval numbers, we include it here (as we will each week).

Volunteers registered 6 new voters in Arizona on Saturday, 68 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter skews the number higher). In Arizona, we had 43 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. These are passed along to Democratic office holders, when possible, but to the appropriate office, if not.

Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since last month in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel

Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are, helping voters to understand the importance of super-compliance with these new voting restrictions that Republicans keep enacting. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured (in states that allow it).

164 volunteers turned up to knock on doors in the southern suburbs of Las Vegas and the outskirts of Reno last Saturday. They knocked on 11,775 doors and talked to 999 voters. 636 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.

The Top 3 Issues canvassers found in Nevada last weekend were Jobs, Inflation was Second and Border Issues was Third. Nevadans were still talking about legislative paralysis, perhaps the Democratic legislature and Republican governor aren’t getting along.

Biden’s Approval numbers among the Nevadans we talked to was at 53% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 12%. Senator Rosen had an Approval rating of 57% with 11% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Lombardo was 21% and Disapproval was 32% last Saturday. (Lombardo had previously been the Clark County Sheriff so he was better known in the Vegas area but less identifiable to Reno voters.)

Volunteers registered 4 new voters and re-registered 36 voters. 111 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 4 voters completed an Incident Report. Two other voters expressed concerns about the 2024 elections but did not fill out incident reports because they didn’t admit to witnessing voter suppression or intimidation.

We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. We do our best to weed out Republican households. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.

But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.

If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel

Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/19/2169816/-Senate-Swing-State-Hope-Springs-Is-Knocking-on-Doors-and-Building-out-the-Data-for-2024-Victories

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