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US Elections and the GOP Advantage [1]

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Date: 2023-05-17

Note: I originally drafted this as a comment to Kerry Eleveld’s diary as noted below, but it got sufficiently long and involved so that I decided to post it as my own diary. I refer to, credit and use a curve from a study done at the University of Texas, in 2019. It is readily available at the link I have shown and indicated and within fair use guidelines, a maximum of two paragraphs may be used. I believe I am well within those guidelines. I hope Kerry does not mind me using his excellent diary as a springboard to post my own thoughts. It is only the second story I have published, so I may have made a few errors.

From Kerry Eleveld’s Diary of May 11, GOP faces demographic doomsday:

Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher puts Trump's ceiling at 46% in 2024—seemingly an opening for Democrats. In 2016, however, Trump beat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the electoral college despite winning just 46% of the vote to her 48%. The remaining 6% of the vote—roughly 8 million votes—went to third-party candidates, including .5% to write-ins.

In 2020, Trump had 46.8% of the vote to 51.3% for Biden. To me the key difference was that there was not a significant third party effort. I cannot make a conclusive case, but I have a definite feeling and opinion that the Green Party run by Jill Stein took enough votes from Hilary that the small state advantage in the EC gave enough of an edge to Trump that he was able to win the EC. The close vote margins in MI, WI, and PA may give some credence to that thought.

Consider the study Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016 by Michael Geruso, Dean Spears & Ishaana Talesara of the University of Texas. This study was discussed twice in Vox Magazine. Once in 2019 and 2021. I’ve previously linked to those articles. I have downloaded the complete study, reviewed it and extracted the below curve:

Michael Geruso, Dean Spears & Ishaana Talesara

The curve shows quite a low percentage probability for the Trump win in 2016 based on percentage of PV. But when that is considered in correlation to the narrowness of the PV in 2016 with Hilary only receiving 48% of the vote, the small state advantage in the EC made the results more comparable to a Republican PV percentage of 49-50%, considering that normally 0.5-1.0% goes to minor party candidates. At that level there is a very strong possibility if not actual probability of a Republican win. Whereas in 2020, the PV difference of 46.8% R — 51.3% D (4.5% difference and 0.9% minor party/writein) it was more reflective of the curve shown above. One can see that at a R 46.8% of the PV the probability of an EC inversion is getting very low.

The conclusion I am drawing is that to avoid EC inversions and given the small state advantage the EC gives to the Republicans, the Democratic Party must emphasize GOTV and absolutely must avoid supporting third party candidates in the general election.

Firstly, we cannot let our voting efforts fall off. That means we must do our best to maintain voting percentages of all minorities and we must combat all efforts of voter suppression. Recently there have been indications in FL and TX that the Republicans are capturing a significant share of Hispanic voters with the emphasis of cultural issues. We cannot allow that to happen. With abortion we must emphasize that the Republican efforts to ban abortion is NOT a family value, rather that the issue is a personal issue that needs should be decided by the woman, her physician and if the woman so wishes her significant other/partner. The state has no business in that area. Do not let the Republicans obfuscate that critical distinction. The same holds true for voting rights.

Secondly, once the Democratic Party selects a nominee, then we must support that nominee. In both 2016 and 2020, there was a vigorous debate regarding the nominee. The principals all got on board in both elections and actively campaigned for the nominee. But crucially in 2016 there was a sizeable percentage of Democrats that supported Jill Stein of the Green Party. That reduced the percentage of Democratic voters enough so that in conjunction with the EC advantage that the GOP has, the PV percentage was reduced sufficiently that the election was put into an effective zone where the R nominee had a reasonable probability of approximately 25% of winning the EC. That combined with the unsettledness in the American electorate, the controversy over the emails and other issues, was enough for Trump to win the EC. I am aware Trump also had a third party issue. That precludes me making a definite conclusion that the Stein candidacy resulted in Trump winning. Nevertheless, when combined with the GOP EC advantage of 0.5 1.0%, as indicated by the 50% probability crossing point in the S-curve above, a split in the liberal / progressive vote can be disastrous. That is the reason I am so adamantly opposed to unfounded criticism of our present President based in misinformation as well as third party efforts. The Democratic Party simply cannot afford that at this time, when our democratically based republic is at risk and even perhaps the future of human civilization as well.

Perhaps soon the Democratic Party will obtain a stable governing majority in the House and the Senate, sufficient to eliminate the filibuster, pass a 21st Century Voting Rights Act, establish uniform federal standards to eliminate gerrymandering and voter suppression, establish a code of ethics and expand the Supreme Court so that its present orientation can be restored to a reasonable balance. At that time we can hopefully pass and ratify a Constitutional Amendment eliminating the EC in favor of the PV and the significant advantage of the GOP can be eliminated. I am aware of the National Popular Vote Compact, but I am very dubious that if the Compact was implemented it would survive a Supreme Court challenge, given the present composition of the Court. Until such time the Democratic Party must remain unified in its support of our nominees and our Presidents.

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