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Ukraine's Spring Offensive 2023 [1]

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Date: 2023-05-10

History shows that spring offensive in southern Ukraine during WW2 took place mid May to mid June. Based on this I believe the Ukraine will start its spring offensive May 19 which is a new moon. This means there will be no moon light at night which gives the advantage to the Ukraine troops with all the Western night vision equipment and thermal sights. The next new moon would be June 18th. If Ukraine waits too long there offensive could be compromised the fall rainy season. So I would say June 18th would be the LATEST it would kick off. I believe the Ukraine will start the attack from Zaporizhzhia and Ugledar with a third front from Kherson a days later.

The attack out of Kherson would force a bridging effort. Please note that Canada, Czech Republic, France, Denmark, USA and Germany have all provided bridging equipment.

Ukraine military needs to break the land bridge by taking Melitopol, Mariupol or Berdiansk. By taking any one of these city's cuts off the land bridge from Crimea to Russia. From here they would turn south toward Crimia and create a blocking force toward the Donbas region. During this time I would expect a number of missile and air strikes on the Crimean Bridge to damage and destroy it.

The longer this war drags out the more it favors Russia and puts Ukraine at risk of losings Western support. So the Ukraine needs a win and my view anything less then breaking the land bridge is loss for Ukraine and a win for Russia.

Units to watch in the upcoming Spring Offensive

Possible units in Kherson front but not limited to:

37thMarine Brigade: AMX-10RC

38th Marine Brigade N/A

21st Mechanized Brigade: N/A

22nd Mechanized Brigade: T-72 AMT

41st Mechanized Brigade: T-72AMT

Possible unit in the Zaporizhzhia front but not limited to:

31st Mechanized Brigade: T-64BV

32 Mechanized Brigade: M2 Bradley

63rd Mechanized Brigade: N/A

82nd Air Assault Brigade: Challengers 2 / Marder / Stryker

117th Mechanized Brigade: N/A

118th Mechanized Brigade: BMP1

Possible unit in the Ugledar front but not limited to:

13th Jager Brigade

33rd Mechanized Brigade: T-72M1 / BMP2 / M113

47th Mechanized Brigade: T-55S / M2 Bradley

60th Mechanized Brigade: T-64BV

88th Mechanized Brigade: N/A

116th Mechanized Brigade: T-64BV / BMP1

Unit to keep an eye on during the invasion.

4th Tank Brigade

TBD # Leopard 2MBT

47th Assault Brigade/ Mechanized Brigade

50 M-2A2 Bradley IFV

28 M-55S MBT's

82nd Air Assault Brigade

14 Challenger 2tanks (have DU ammo)

40 Marder IFV

90 Stryker IFV

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/10/2168564/-Ukraine-s-Spring-Offensive-2023

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