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Knocking on Doors in Two of the Hottest Senate Races in 2024, A Early Organizing Report [1]
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Date: 2023-05-04
2024 Electoral College Battleground Map
I mentioned yesterday that weather was a huge concern preparing for last Saturday’s canvassing in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and scheduled events in Pennsylvania and Virginia. The latter two were postponed because of colder than expected weather in those two states. And while the rain came after our normal canvassing period on the East Coast, in the Phoenix forecast we had to schedule earlier canvassing because of hot weather expected. So it was fortunate that two of our Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers stepped up to serve as drivers for canvassers who wanted the cooling vehicle option for knocking on doors in hotter (or, for that matter, colder) weather. Hot! Hot! Hot!
2024 Senate Battleground Map
In both these states, we are canvassing in order to identify (and quantify) support for Democrats in both the 2024 Presidential and Senate elections. Nevada seems to be adjusting to the fact that it elected a Democrat and state legislature while a Republican won the gubernatorial election. “How did we do that?” one voter asked a volunteer. (Divided government isn’t necessarily unpopular, but in an increasingly partisan atmosphere you can understand the question.)
We had a great turnout on Saturday. We had been canvassing in Las Vegas for a couple of weeks, but it was our first weekend back in Reno. 92 volunteers showed up to knock on doors and knocked on 5,860 doors. and talked to 497 voters. 311 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey. The Top 3 Issues canvassers found in Nevada were Economic Uncertainty or Recession Fears, the Price of Groceries and Housing (both availability and affordability). The most mentioned concern in the state portion of the Issues Survey was about legislative paralysis, but that came out of the Vegas canvasses. Always interesting when different areas produce different results.
Biden’s Approval numbers among the Nevadans we talked to was at 54% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 11%. Senator Rosen had an Approval of 58% with 7% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Lombardo was 21% and Disapproval was 31% last Saturday. (Lombardo had previously been the Clark County Sheriff so he was better known in the Vegas area.)
Volunteers registered 8 new voters and re-registered 19 voters. 28 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 1 voter completed an Incident Report. Five other voters expressed concerns about the 2024 elections but did not fill out incident reports because they didn’t admit to witnessing voter suppression or intimidation.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since last month in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are, helping voters to understand the importance of super-compliance with these new voting restrictions that Republicans keep enacting. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured (in states that allow it).
88 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the western suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson on Saturday. They knocked on 6,142 doors and talked to 549 voters. 339 of those voters filled out at least part of the Issues Survey.
The Tightening Economy was the Top Issue for the Arizonans we talked to Saturday. This includes rising costs of credit and Home/Student Loans (not sure if Student Loans are variable, but they were mentioned). Mass Shootings was another concern, and this included fears of school shootings. Transportation Costs was third, although i am not sure why.
Biden Approval among the Arizonans we talked to was at 51% last Saturday and 8% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 13% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 38% expressed Disapproval. We ask ask about whether vote Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 39% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman.
41% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Hobbs was doing a good job, 9% said they disapproved of the job she was doing. One voter told a volunteer that she had just noticed that Sen. Sinema was still receiving her monthly (or on-going) donation through ActBlue. She stopped it, of course, but was surprised that ActBlue was still processing funds for the no-longer-Democratic candidate. She asked us to pass that along.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods. In Arizona, we had 29 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. As i mentioned above, these are passed along to Democratic office holders, when possible, but to the appropriate office, if not.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Our very first question is whether the person we are talking to is registered to vote at their current home address. We registered 9 new voters in Arizona on Saturday, 51 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter skews the number higher).
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
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