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China turns to peace [1]

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Date: 2023-05-01

Published: 9:41pm, 27 Apr, 2023

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said China was willing to work with five countries in Central Asia – where Russia has substantial influence – to push for a consensus in solving the Ukraine crisis. “China and the Central Asian countries share a similar view and stance on the crisis in Ukraine,” Qin said on Thursday after meeting his regional counterparts in the northwest city of Xian to prepare for next month’s China plus Central Asian countries (C+C5) summit. Qin said the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – all former Soviet states – spoke highly of the constructive conversation between Xi and Zelensky and believed it would be helpful for achieving a ceasefire and peace talks soon, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Why China's man for peace in Ukraine might be the 'best possible choice' for Russia

By Keir Simmons, Alexander Smith, Henry Austin, Kristen Welker and Andrea, May 1, 2023

He once wrote that China needs a “powerful Russia.” Now the man tasked by Beijing to bring Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table is raising eyebrows in Ukraine and among its Western allies who are already skeptical about China's claims to be a neutral peace broker. For Moscow, Li is “the best possible choice” for someone to mediate talks with Ukraine, according to Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University. Li was China’s ambassador to Moscow for a decade until 2019, and has decades of diplomatic experience in the then-Soviet Union and its remnants in the years after its collapse. He is a renowned Russophile and a fluent Russian speaker, among the few foreigners awarded the prestigious Medal of Friendship by President Vladimir Putin. Li’s expected visit to several European countries may be a bid to allay concerns about where Beijing’s diplomatic loyalties lie, given that China has previously heralded its “no limits” partnership with Russia, lent it rhetorical and financial support, and refused to condemn last February's invasion. Ukraine's government itself has stayed positive publicly about Li. Kyiv hopes that Li’s “deep knowledge of our region will help him to communicate impartially and effectively with all parties,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko told NBC News in a statement.

China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, was published on Feb 24, 2023. The media immediately seized upon the 12 point position paper as a proposed peace plan. China’s actions since its publication clearly supports the implications of the title, this is where we stand, let’s talk about it. China’s propaganda arm immediately forged a tie between this position paper and Xi mediation of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen embassies in each country as peace making. In reality, the hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran is being carried out as a proxy war in Yemen and the agreement to reestablish diplomatic relations had no effect on the conflict in Yemen.

For the past three months, Xi Jinping has held marathon negotiations with over 40 high level officials from Russia, Europe, South America, Asia Africa and the Middle East all headlined as talks on China’s “peace plan,” each one ended with significant trade agreements for China, and progress for China in its quest to elevate the yuan as an alternative to the US dollar in international trade by including local currency clause in these new agreements. The first peace initiative to come out of China was Xi’s agreement to accept President Zelensky’s call on April 26, 2023.

The announcement of Li Hui as special envoy followed that call and was reported as an outcome of the call, if that is so the establishment of an official Ukraine peace initiative by China is a major accomplishment for Zelensky, and it should be recognized as such. If true, it would also imply Zelensky influenced Xi, a possibility I suggested in my first diary, There is broad agreement on peace in Ukraine, on the common elements of what were reported to be competing plans at the time.

This background portends optimism that Xi’s choice of someone known to Putin as his envoys is not directed at Zelensky, who may have actually requested that Xi appoint someone, but at Putin, who will inevitably be the hardest sell on anything that resembles a fair and just settlement. Hui will be in a much better position to have frank and private discussions with Putin on the realities of the situation and the possible outcomes associated with each alternative Putin has for ending the conflict.

That said, I am looking forward to a decisive outcome from Ukraine’s upcoming offensive being the catalysis of convincing Putin to withdraw his forces from Ukraine's 1991 borders and begin negotiations in earnest to achieve a lasting peace and security for the region.

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