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Republican Leaders Struggle With the Fallout of the Midterms [1]

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Date: 2023-01-03

The midterms were a disaster for Republicans; who barely won the House of Representatives, and managed to finish weaker in the Senate. Pollsters have called the midterms an “asterisk election”, because it is one of the few moments in history in which the president’s party had a strong midterm. The history is clear: the president’s party nearly always has a poor midterm. Yet, the dreams of a Red Wave turned into a reality of a red ripple. The fallout has been epic. Polling shows that a large majority of Republicans favor removing Ronna McDaniel as Republican National Committee (RNC) leader. Meanwhile, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) faces a fight to save his Speakership.

McDaniel Should Survive

According to the survey conducted by The Hill, 73% of Republican voters want McDaniel gone. Just 6% of Republican voters support her for a fourth term in office. With just 21% of voters undecided, McDaniel’s leadership has taken a huge hit. However, McDaniel has the support of a majority of RNC members, so she should be safe.

At issue is the party’s electoral strategy. The damage to the party came from the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization to overturn the constitutional right to abortion. However, Republican voters feel that the party’s decision to say nothing about abortion, or, at best, send mixed signals, gave the election to Democrats. More broadly, those voters believe that the RNC and the Republican leadership as a whole, is not committed to furthering conservative principles and winning a majority.

The trouble for Republicans is that, as RNC chair, McDaniel is not responsible for picking candidates, which many observers noted was a major problem for the party. All you need to know about Republicans is “Herschel Walker”. This suggests that even if she is removed, the underlying problems remain.

McCarthy May Be Done

Mccarthy, on the other hand, looks to be done. He has so far failed to get enough votes to secure his Speakership, which is not a good sign for an incumbent. Even if he goes on to win he will be the first Speaker in more than a century, to fail to win the vote on the first round. That will be a huge blow to his prestige and make it harder for him to lead House Republicans. MCcarthy has Trump’s support, but these days, that doesn’t amount to much. Perversely, it is Trump-aligned Republicans who are leading the charge against MCcarthy, arguing that he has failed to work with them on rule changes and principles. They are mad, and mad as hell.

Usually, it takes a majority in the House to be Speaker, or 218 of the House’s 218 votes. Given that the Republican House caucus is just 218 members strong, McCarthy cannot afford to have a large opposition to him. It is possible to win with less than 218 votes, as Nancy Pelsoi and John Boehner did, but that usually means that members are missing or sick during the vote. This has the feel of 2010, when Republicans retook the House, and, fueled by the Tea Party, made Boehner the Speaker. Boehner ushered in an age of trenchant opposition to the Obama Administration. He eventually stood down, burnt out by the fighting that broke out between moderates and the far-right. This revolution may eat its children and the next speaker may not survive for long. In Mccarthy’s favor is the lack of a clear alternative, although Congressman Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has some sway. He, however, lost 188-31 against McCarthy in the November nominating vote. The other alternative is House Republican Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), who is widely liked and survived a mass shooting at a congressional baseball game in 2017. However, he is yet to throw his hat in the ring. If McCarthy survives, he can thank the lack of true alternatives, but his time as speaker will be volatile.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/3/2145186/-Republican-Leaders-Struggle-With-the-Fallout-of-the-Midterms

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