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Ukraine Invasion Day 270: winter approaches like the counter-offensives [1]
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Date: 2022-11-19
So the "town square" is now occupied territory. The enemy holds the high ground here. Disinformation abounds even as combat continues.
Russian forces are reportedly beginning to reinforce their positions in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts with personnel from Kherson Oblast and mobilized servicemen. The Ukrainian General Staff reported an increase in Russian military personnel in Luhansk City and noted that Russian forces are housing servicemen in abandoned homes in Krasne and Simeikyne about 30km southeast of Luhansk City.[1] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are transferring the remnants of the Russian airborne units from right (west) bank Kherson Oblast to Luhansk Oblast.[2] Luhansk Oblast Military Administration added that a part of redeploying Russian troops is arriving in Novoaidar, approximately 55km east of Severodonetsk.[3] Advisor to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andryushenko also noted the arrival of redeployed personnel and military equipment to Mariupol, stating that Russian forces are placing 10,000 to 15,000 servicemen in the Mariupol Raion.[4] Andryushenko stated that newly mobilized men are deploying to the presumably western Donetsk Oblast frontline via Mariupol. Russian forces are reportedly attempting to disperse forces by deploying some elements in the Hulyaipole direction in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.[5] Russia will also likely commit additional mobilized forces in the coming weeks, given that mobilized units of the Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army have finished their training in Brest Oblast, Belarus.[6] Russian forces will likely continue to use mobilized and redeployed servicemen to reignite offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and maintain defensive positions in Luhansk Oblast. www.understandingwar.org/... x They were held in a school basement for four weeks in near-total darkness. Some died at the hands of Russian forces, others from suffocation and disease. As they contend with those horrors, some are just trying to survive the worst of the war.
https://t.co/t62PfjzTu9 — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) November 20, 2022 Before the war, the elementary school had been a center point in the community. Mr. Polhui, whose grandchildren attended the school, said that there had been many happy memories made there before the Russian invasion. Now, the children in the area attend other schools or take classes online. And while the Russian forces have gone, the trauma lingers for those who were held in captivity, with the still-intact elementary school serving as a daily reminder of their experiences. x Exclusive: Moscow and Tehran are said to agree on a plan to assemble Iranian-designed weapons on Russian soil
https://t.co/w9l5wHR5kC — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 20, 2022 x After Hitler invaded the USSR, were the Soviet people wrong to fight to liberate their country? No. Should they instead have tried (& failed) to swap "land for peace"? No. So after being invaded by Russia, why are so many people coaching Ukrainians to give "land for peace" today? — Michael McFaul (@McFaul) November 20, 2022 x The United States is pressuring Ukraine to be open to peace talks with Moscow, with a top Pentagon official saying Kyiv's forces will find it hard to recover all the territory Russia has captured in the war.
https://t.co/TKM4uN8lSm by @PaulHandley2 pic.twitter.com/HFDN9yRqsM — AFP News Agency (@AFP) November 19, 2022
Key Takeaways Russian forces are reportedly beginning to reinforce their positions in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts with personnel from Kherson Oblast and mobilized servicemen.
US intelligence officials stated that Russian and Iranian officials finalized a deal in early November to manufacture Iranian drones on Russian territory.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces maintained their offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City despite reports of high losses around Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued efforts to fortify areas around ground lines of communication in southern Ukraine while struggling with the partial loss of the use of the Kerch Strait Bridge.
Russian media sources continued active discussions of an impending second wave of mobilization.
The number of Russian prisoners appears to have dropped by about 6.5% since January of 2022 likely due to intensive Wagner Group recruitment.
Russian authorities are working to establish control over the information space in occupied territories and identify Ukrainian partisans. www.understandingwar.org/... x VIDEO: A Ukrainian soldier weeps as he is overcome with emotion following the liberation of his hometown Kherson from Russian occupation pic.twitter.com/EGSevkImdB — Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) November 18, 2022
x List Of Aircraft Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of #Ukraine
Russian losses updated with:
- 2 Mi-28 attack helicopters (damaged)
- 1 Mi-35M attack helicopter (damaged)
- 1 Mi-8 transport helicopter (damaged)
These are from Chornobaivka, March.
https://t.co/5JxYI4fmCm — Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) November 18, 2022
x ⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE, NOV 19
Troop losses slightly up between days
TODAY'S REPORT:
420 soldiers killed ⬆
7-day average: 574 ⬆
17 equipment lost ⬇
7-day average: 54 ⬇
VISUALLY CONFIRMED:
3.5x to date ➡
2.3x last 30 days ➡
3.5x counteroffensive ➡
📈
https://t.co/YGqxU3FoVP pic.twitter.com/mO5H7yT0YN — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦@
[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) November 19, 2022
x November 17: "As a result of a fire attack by the Defence Forces on a concentration of the enemy near Mykhaylivka, Skadovsk district, Kherson oblast, the invaders' losses amounted to about 60 people killed."
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 18:00, 19 Nov 2022 pic.twitter.com/dxH5fU0Hcl — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) November 20, 2022
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued their offensive operations around Bakhmut on November 19 despite reports of high losses on the frontline. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bilohorivka and Zelenopillya northeast of Bakhmut and Klishchiivka southwest of Bakhmut.[15] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces continued to attack Ukrainian positions near Spirne, Verkhnokamianske, and Bilohorivka, all near the T1302 highway.[16] Geolocated footage showed that Russian forces made incremental advances toward Klishchiivka, and other footage indicated that Ukrainian forces maintained their positions near Mayorsk (about 20km southeast of Bakhmut).[17] Russian officials previously claimed control over Mayorsk on November 13.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that about 500 wounded Russian servicemen arrived in Horlivka hospitals from the Mayorsk direction, which suggests that Russian forces are experiencing high casualties on this segment of the frontline.[19] Russian milbloggers, however, claimed that Russian forces seized the southern part of the T0513 highway that starts at Mayorsk.[20]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive operations throughout the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 19. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the directions of Chervonopopivka (about 6km northwest of Kreminna) and Ploshchanka (about 20km southwest of Svatove).[11] A Russian milblogger noted that Ukrainian forces returned to positional battles following their unsuccessful attempts to assault Russian positions in Chervonopopivka.[12] Luhansk People’s Republic’s (LNR) Deputy Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev claimed that Russian forces continued to repel Ukrainian attacks in the Kuzemivka area (approximately 13km northwest of Svatove), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in the most difficult battles west of Kuzemivka in Novoselivka.[13]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled settlements along the Svatove-Kreminna frontline.[14]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x I’m not sure if Ukraine has capabilities like that or if it would be worth the risk to send manned aircraft over the Black Sea that far. But in this article the drone boats reportedly have a 500 mile range. So they pushed the limit pretty close here.
https://t.co/0hIG6R3gTt — Jack Ryan 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@jackryan212) November 20, 2022
From early in the war (March)
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